its pointless to argue with Surf as he never defines his terms and anyone who uses an indicator, follows a trend, is part of a cult. Worse he believes he is saving others, and his price drivers and subequent calls leaves one longing for the simplicity of a 50 day sma. Then there is the constant implication that he is a big dog on the porch, roof roof, rubbing elbows with important people etc. grey poupon anyone? Personally I think Surf has not made peace with $$ which is a whole other subject. Like anything else in life there are wealthy folks that are disturbingly humble and well adjusted, and plenty of poor assholes out there. So the real question is who are YOU really? By the way is market profile ta?
Please! I am a humble microdot on the financial landscape. WHile I have forged a living out the markets on my terms, I don't think I have an arrogant bone in my body. Yeah, i know many folks who are my betters in this business, I learn from them and hopefully provide a value for value relationship. Ask anyone who knows me outside of the internet-- where its a must to have an edgy persona or you will be ignored--- I don't' know enough about market profile to comment---- i woud venture to say it is TA if it uses past price and volume to make decisions. what do you think, and does it work for you? surf
No, but I try to anticipate rather than react-- -trade what you think, not what you see as what you see is the past--- anticipating price movement by knowing the Price Drivers that occur prior to price movement and anticipating their affect on price-- rather than hoping for past patterns to repeat----
ok fair enough, I think you come off that way to this board maybe unintentionally, also I think it would be much more helpful to expound on what you believe works in the market vs telling others what doesn't. I would agree that to predict the future in financial terms is difficult, but don't all systems suffer this fate not just ta, I mean assuming product x will revert to the mean who get you killed in a trending market. I mean the whole random argument is that you can't outperform/predict the mkt. Taleb talks about a lucky streak that would last a lifetime. So the problem in statistics is sample size. Is one guy trading at a desk with thousands of successful trades a big enough sample size. Is Ray Dalio due to blowout. I think these larger questions are difficult to answer. Every trade is part of a larger sample size, like Mav said on another post we don't have the luxury of a federal backstop or unlmited intraday credit ala GS etc. Regarding market profile it is considered ta by the CME in their discussion on their website. I know some good traders who swear by it, I just think it gives them a way to really tune into price action. Here is a chart with monthly market profile going back 20 years the magic number is 1067. The low 10/11 was 1075 around the Europe crisis. Possible reversion trade idea.
This product isn't diversified trend following, it's just long-or-flat SPY based on whether SPY is ± its 200 day MA.
Who said it had to be diversified. It uses a trend indicator to identify a trend then stay in that product until the indicator says its no longer in a trend. That is a called a trend fund. LOL. You guys are funny.
Now before this thread goes way off topic let's start over. Surf, you start a thread saying trend following is dead. You follow that up with "evidence" by pointing to one single fund who is struggling. In other words, you're cherry picking. I then respond with my own "cherry" that refutes that. You respond by saying I'm cherry picking and we should really look at a large group of funds instead of a single little cherry. So I respond in kind. I show you the entire hedge fund group and how they have gotten decimated by the S&P. In fact, their performance looks awfully similar to these trend funds. You then return my serve and start talking about your "niche" fund that made a killing in 2008, back to the cherry we are. So Surf, I think this is an interesting debate. And I don't mind having it. But the debate has to compare apples to apples. If we are going to compare large groups of funds, fine, I've got data coming out of ears on hedge funds going back to the 1950's. If you want to serve and volley back and forth where we each pick out our favorite funds and see who wins, we can do that too. But you can't keep mixing and matching. Now to be fair, I did concede that trend followers in general, broadly speaking, have put up mediocre numbers over the last decade. But so have hedge funds. In fact, so have most hedge fund strategies. I also pointed out, which you never responded to, that most investors use trend following as a "complement" to long risk asset strategies in which the combination produces lower overall volatility and higher risk adjusted returns. So at this point in the match, I'm kind of lost here at the point you are trying to make. I'm not defending trend following. I believe I have graded their performance fairly and without prejudice. But I have yet to see your counterpoint. I'm sure you have one and perhaps you just forgot to post it. It happens. So I'll wait and see what you serve up for me.