The market is not entirely a set of independent events so your coinflip analogy is completely off. If I buy a stock that has gone up a lot in the past, does it mean that we increase our chance of going up in the future vs a stock that has only seen new lows? You can answer the question yourself. Before you think I actually want a debate, I don't. You have your mind set that you will not be profitable and no one can ever help you - and I respect that.
your misunderstanding. after the entry--direction is the only thing that matters. unfortunately, since trend only exists in the past, looking at it does one little good prior to entry. this is a fact. regards, surf
See, that's the problem I have with you, surf. You are perfectly comfortable speaking for everyone when you say, "...one can not determine with any odds greater than 50/50 just when to to enter a trade based on looking at past chart trends." How you are able to capture the entirety of human experience and potential with your proclamations is really quite astounding. And please stop with the stupid coin toss analogy. Each coin flip is entirely independent of the prior one and the next one. As a trader, are you suggesting that all trades in the market made by all of the players are made entirely independently of one another?
tests show the opposite. may i suggest larry connors book of studies " How markets really work" to clarify this to you. i really reccomend this book, it's available on amazon. for example-- returns actually increase after consecutive days of delines and decrease following consecutive days of market gains. what studies are you familiar with that support your contention? best wishes, surf
I dont know about the studies but in the following scenerio I will bet every time the price is going to B before its going to A and my results suggests the odds are much better than 50/50. <img src="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1541253">
It's not so much a matter of belief or disbelief as it is whether or not one trades (i.e., something other than part-time on paper). Those who don't trade can believe or disbelieve whatever they like. Why not? Those who do trade, on the other hand, know. To say that trend does not exist labels one as a non-trader (or, again, as one who only dabbles). It's an idiotic statement, prompted largely by the individual's inability to trade trend. LC
this is the most ill informed post on the thread as of yet. i guess victor niederhoffer and the multiple money managers trained by him ( who collectively manage billions) don't really trade-- among many many others---- GIVE ME A BREAK! plus the greatest trend follower of all time, JWH, can't find trend presently--- and you expect to?? unreal! surf