Trend Following for Idiots (Order Restored)

Discussion in 'Trading' started by steve46, Jul 23, 2007.


  1. This idiot agrees that two ticks in the same direction constitutes a trend. :cool:
     
    #21     Jul 23, 2007
  2. it seems at least 25% of threads here end in a flame war...
     
    #22     Jul 23, 2007
  3. Yes, if you are a scalper.

    Be advised however that a retail trader scalping a tick or two isn't going to make it in this business. You would have to have a different pricing structure to make a go of it that way..in my opinion.
     
    #23     Jul 23, 2007
  4. I am just talking trend, how many pages was the "trend following delusion shattered" with no agreement on anything. Ok then, how do you suggest capturing a longer trend?
     
    #24     Jul 23, 2007
  5. Yes, the right question.

    If you are trading futures (indexes) you have to know that they are noisy. So...you need a couple of things in order to make it work..First you have to have a way to cut the noise a bit..One suggestion (proflogic's) is to use constant volume charts...If that doesn't suit you, the other is to look at the market from a longer term perspective. In addition, I think one has to have several well researched setups that offer a statistically valid edge. If you do that, you have a chance..

    I like to look at the daily and 60 min chart for general direction. I take a top down approach looking first at the daily, then at the 60 min candles. Here is a chart showing today's action. Look at the test of the longer term MA. It will either test and take it out or test and fail. A close above, and I look to get long using the 5 min chart. A close below, same.
     
    #25     Jul 23, 2007
  6. Another pointless thread that ignores money management and psychology.. the only two things that will ever make you money

    When will the unprofitable learn that the methodology has very little to do with it

    Yet it gets 95% of their attention and resources.. any wonder 95% lose
     
    #26     Jul 23, 2007
  7. achilles28

    achilles28


    Trends only "manifest" themselves in hindsight. In point of fact, there is no such thing as trend at all. They are mental mirages. Illusions of the mind created by sheer desire to seek order
    from chaos.

    There is nothing in physics, the natural world, or human psychology/behavior that would even suggest trends
    exist!

    And since the market is a reflection of the participants that create it, we can all be assured the idea of trend is nothing more than a marketing invention by the shysters and shucksters to sell false hope to a gullible mass.

    Thats the chink in your chain!
     
    #27     Jul 23, 2007
  8. One of the interesting things about human beings is the ability to synthesize and anticipate from prior experience.....

    The fact that some of use can do so, differentiates us from lower animals....and that is why we can make use of trend...

    Thanks for the comment. I like stream of conciousness as much as anyone but I do suggest you think for a moment before posting..:D That way you avoid getting slapped around verbally...

    Was that polite enough for everyone...:D

    Steve
     
    #28     Jul 23, 2007
  9. Hot tempers...it's a global warming thing.
     
    #29     Jul 23, 2007
  10. Here is a shot of today's action so far, using 30 min candles

    The screen is pretty self explanatory.
     
    #30     Jul 23, 2007