yeah except I don't like gambling. I worked hard for my money. You talk about "10%" of my assets like it is a small deal. To me every percent is a big deal. I'm not opposed to putting some of it (or all of it) at risk, but it is all my money and I don't treat any of it like it can be given back.
Trading is just like fighting. One of my favorite guys, Anderson Silva, has been a champion for a long time, yet keeps changing his end game. First it was leg kicks, then the random reverse elbo to the forehead, then the classic Muay Thai clench + knees to the head, then hands low + sneaky jabs to the lower jaw, and now it is a very unexpected knee to the sternum. He's been on top for a long, long time. He keeps changing his game. I wonder if trend followers have been figured out by their competition? When you're on top, you get stalked. People start to study your game - sometimes books even get written.....
that's why the best strategy is just to keep doing the same thing, because everybody else will think you are changing something. Like the guy who threw 102 curveballs in a row (and he had a very good fastball) and they asked him, "Why don't you throw your good fastball?" and he said, "I think they may be sitting on it."
Replace strategies with instruments and increase the count significantly and you have a good definition of trend-following in your quote below. I think if you really step back for a second you would be surprised how close your language below is to the mantra of a trend follower. The ultimate end game, as say a multi-billionaire, is to have your fingers in everything everywhere, and thus you are just a macro trend follower (global growth generally being the optimal situation)...
From the 500+ CTA programs tracked by Altegris, only 31 were profitable during the last 12 months! Quite a shock. #1 program for the last 12 months gained 24.5% net of fees. However, this particular program had a 89% drawdown in the past and they need over 100% return just to recover from that DD. QIM Global Program remains one of the best out there. +9.9% return last 12 months. But during last 36 months the same program gained only 1.19% p.a. There is also a giant Winton with its 26B assets and 100+ researches. -5% this year. Seems like all these managers made a huge mistake of not allocating all their trading to FX. With the right methods, it was possible to make +30% this year.
Another Legend in trading business since 1972: Campbell & Company. https://www.campbell.com/portfolio-performance/global-diversified-large-portfolio.aspx This program had VAMI at $102,276 at the end of 2006. Now , Oct 2012 VAMI is at $87,559. 6 years have passed, and the company which had over 3 Billion of assets for many years is unable to change its trading strategies? Dear Lord :eek:
yeah, I bought a stock once. At one time it was trading at $102. Now it is back down to $87. You just never know how these things will work out.
I like to keep some blue chip stocks that are going to pay out enough dividend to live off whether the market goes up or down. The rest I can have a lot of fun investing. Being an out of towner I get to go to the big city occasionally and can probably spot the winners from the loosers. Look at the shops - which are doing well for whatever reason and are full of customers. In those shops look to see what is selling. Are they new phones or something else. If you can, go look at their factory - is it bustling with activity or are the guys sitting around smoking ? Watch the TV. Will Tim Cooke be another Steve Jobs ? People are important - they move things into the comfy profitable patch. Have the young Turks been replaced by the time serving slugs yet ? And so on - obvious really.
I know I give you a hard time Humpy, but sometimes you and your England make me envious. Do they still let you sit around and smoke over there? Here in ithe USA they make you go outside. I asked somebody what the weather was like outside, and he said, "I don't know, I don't smoke."
I've never been a big fan of dividends, I figure, if you can't think of anything better to do with my money other than give it back to me, why should I invest with you? But you know, either times change or I change. I just picked up a some of the Vanguard Dividend Growth fund. symbol VDIGX. I think it's down a little since I first got in. We'll see how it goes.