Dropped a handle on the breakout. Just down 4 commissions. Not trading this chop. In my world a "HANDLE" is 4 ticks which is max stop now. Thats a losing trade, a scratch is still considered a winning trade.
At 9:06 Tucson time, there have been three trends this AM, each having three price moves as the pts 1, 2, and 3 were set up for each trending container (parallelogram). A pt 1 is coincident with an FTT. (Using 5 minute bars on the ES.) The tape FTT got broken on each long trend. For whatever reason the trends were each 7 bars long and each contained three subtrends. Several people are posting this as chop to them; I'm sure it is to them. The OP, who is a vendor, is pointing out how crudely some traders approach the market. Why the insensitivity? I believe people have varying degrees of sensitivity because they are unaware of the following: 1. All trading involves three mind operators: shape, spatial and movement. Every prson uses these skillfully in many other ways. Why not engaged them for trading? 2. There are only nine cases for adjacent bars. Why not use these to determine where you are in trends? 7 of the nine cases simply tell you to wait (see yellow boxes) until more advances occur on the containers. 3. All trends build as they have parts that fit together. This gives nested fractals in a ratio of three to one. Why not use this geometry to build containers. 4. Volume leads price. Why not let volume tell you about price as time passes. Look at the color pattern. Today's: short R2R 2B 2R; long B2B 2R 2B; Short R2R 2B 2R; As volume drops to very slow level the pattern continues with low volatility. At FOMC this afternoon you will see three moves from the news. Check out these moves as they follow the pattern as well. See if your mind is able to cut through the hubris and "see" the repeated and orderly P, V based trends.... I posted it to save you the trouble of having to click it.
There are many little people caught in the hindsight dilemma they have chosen to create. In the process of annotating the patterns, a person creates three lvels of geometry. Each segment is used to create two things: the small piece of the fastest fractal and the building blocks of the slower fractals. What is so nifty is that you always, for three nested fractals have the answers to three questions. No predicting or betting or guessing is ever involved. You simply know that you know all of the time on three fractals that are interlocked using the two variables of the market. What do you need to know to trade and make money all the time? You need to know what is going on on the fractal you trade. You need to know how that fractal is being built by a faster fractal and you need to know the slower fractal context of the market. So what are the three questions that would allow you to do the 10 trades showing?
This is the essence of any method of trading: So what are the three questions that would allow you to do the 10 trades showing? My three Q's are simple: 1 Where in the pattern am I? 2. What is next? 3. How fast it it changing? Questions 1 and 2 plan my whole day if I wish. I wrote out 9 of the 10 trades in the first post as you see. The trades were sort, long, short; long, short, long; short, long, short. Trade 10 was long. What will 11 be? What will 12 be? Thirteen is beginng since the reason for trading for trade 12 has been met Take profits at end of trend). My chart is updated because I like to know how the containers are going.
I've been contemplating the effect of parrondo's paradox on using a breakout strategy simultaneously with a fade/contraian range strategy. I would apply the Kelly criterion to optimize the parrondo's paradox. The idea to is potentially make and lose money in both markets; however, the Kelly criterion would increase the odds of making more than you'd be losing. To be most effective, I believe that I would need 2 separate accounts. Walt
I guesss you noitced there is a window for taking profit segments and starting the next trade. SKO pointed this out in his series of questions on the first and second chance during periods of "change". The market has two states: "continue" and "change" Question 1 tells you which is which. someone asked me about the Hershey Hinges (H-H) this AM. Look at the chart. Are there as many, more or less than the number of trades? Do they hve a relatioship to points 1, 2, and 3 on containers. Why doesn't a person make up rules for trading? the reason is that learning to trade has to do with only one thing. Did you learn to read? Drive a car? Why aren't there any rules for reading? Why no rules for driving a car? The reason is that you mind has been built to be able to read and drive WITHOUT HAVING ANY RULES CONSCIOUSLY IN YOUR MIND. YOU ALL HAVE UNCONSCIOUS COMPETENCE. I like BH's rule for getting stopped out at no loss (only for points net shrinkage on his P&L). I like his wash trades being profitable too; that is cool to have a profit when the net is 0 less commish.
we are going through bars 30, 31 and 32. Do you have p[oint 3 for the short tape as yet? What is the BBT doing after poiont three of a tape. How do the three trades in that BBT3 go? Are they short, long, short like every other time in the last 53 years? Maybe... I'm not sure yet???? LOL..... you can figure it out in the next 45 minutes I bet. Pull that thick red RTL of the tape down to bar 35 and watch BBT 3 short have a R2R 2B 2R three moves with volume leading with four moves: decreasing, increasing, decresing, increasing.