Trend Following dying?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by JezLiberty, Feb 17, 2010.

  1.  
    #161     Feb 21, 2010
  2. This is pic at the moment of entry before the exit:D
    [​IMG]
     
    #162     Feb 21, 2010
  3.  
    #163     Feb 21, 2010
  4. You can't hold your breath for so long.....:)
     
    #164     Feb 21, 2010
  5. FWIW, for several reasons I doubt "psyclesurfer" is famous original Surf. I suspect it's an impersonator/wannabe looking for attention by pretending to be Surf.
     
    #165     Feb 21, 2010
  6. Pretty good impression, its hard to convey curiosity and resistance to change at the same time, so i'd say it's classic surf.
     
    #166     Feb 21, 2010

  7. ok here you go. the week ahead
     
    #167     Feb 21, 2010
  8. ( 1) Grammar, usage and style are wrong (subtly, but wrong).
    ( 2) If it's Surf, why haven't the mods killed the account by now?
    ( 3) Why would a Surf (alias) label himself "Surf", thus inviting ( 2)?
     
    #168     Feb 21, 2010
  9. 1. When trend overlap begins........label as point 1 having coordinates ( , )

    Your prgrammer will have trouble with this, since it involves a loop in code. Ask him to consider how to code a loop.

    2. Meet criteria for a new coordinate in time. Label as point 2 having coordinates ( , ).

    Here he will recognize he has to construct "records" or a "look up table".

    3. Meet a criteria for a third point in time. Label as point 3 having coordinates ( , ).

    By this time he sees and understands that three points are involved for a purpose. The criteria for the points, you will tell him, is on a sheet that can be searched.

    4. Use points one two and three to construct a parallelogram.

    Since he is a quant he will get out a geometry book of coding (snippets) and import it to his coding.

    5. Test (this is what you need to have him explain to you) for the end of the trend contained in the parallelogram. The geometric test for him to use is a snippet from a geometric code book. The topic is "long diagonal". The evaluation of the long diagonal is "maximun length". In finite math (the geometric granularity in markets is at hand), he can use the statistical equivalent in calculus of reaching a maximum point. In algebra (often used in calculus to describe functions, this is a second degree polynomial). Tell him this is sufficient.

    6. Use the price variable of the coordinate of 1. and 5. to determine the trend profit.

    The search for the sheet is done using the name of the sheet. the name is Clean Page 4. On that sheet, conveniently he will find the "regions" that are possible for the points 2 and 3, all relative to point 1. Have him determine the coordinates of points 2 and 3 relative to the prior (this means most recent to have happened) that are "maximum" as determined by THE TEST articulated in step 5.

    If he is experienced enough in high school mathematics, he will soon see how the looping takes him to finer and finer loops whose fineness ends at the granularity of the market at hand. (And Hence nested fractals in a fixed ratio)

    I've dumbed this down so you can just hand him a print of my post and please do not answer any of his questions with your answers.

    Several of us set a trap for you as you see. Many people have given you repeated graphics of parallelograms where the long diagonal determines the profit segment. A high school student who has a computer can do the lookups for the canned coding if he is able to do geometry and use algebra quadratic equations.

    As you see to trade the long diagonal of a parallelogram the trader sits through three price moves. As you also see, each of the three moves is a long diagonal of the another faster fractal parallelogram. The smallest period of time for a parallelogram occurs on the fastest fractal which is on a one tick level of granularity.

    a while back you saw David K Marshall (DKM)explain to all that he did not know how to figure out the minimum bars in a given fractal. he guessed on thing and I told him the different correct answer by expplining how thepossible cases of were combined to get the answer. To cases were involved and they alternated. the reason I am mentioning it is that it is a good 10 minute test for hiring quants, programmers and traders. Call Lo and find out he cannot get the correct answer. Lo proved he could not get the answer over the years he was at Wharton, other watering holes and as a tenured guy at Tech.

    The cases can be searched by your firm's quant (I love this story of firms and quants) using the search name Clean page 2. There is a 10 pager out there that is the whole nine yards (the capacity of a bolt used for cloth storage and sales). As you see a page is an inifinte number (repeating) portion in terms of yardage on bolts.

    You will know your quant has finished the read of this by the noise he makes. Google chuckle as in chipomunk when you read it.

    The math oriented readers of this will almost immediately recognize it is the solution to not jumping fractals while trading. (extra quant credit and a GED equivalent).

    Colorwise the abve is known as B2B 2R 2B for long and R2R 2B 2R for short. Any trader can apply the colorwise appraoch by having a fifth grader it to his right since the fifth grader soon into the color series will say " here comes a_____!!!!"

    Obviously the stuff you gave to your quant to code up for testing, he could not do during all the time he had last week. He will also screw this up. If he has a child, fifth grader or better, tell him to bring him to work. By 11:00am central park doggie do time, the fifth grader will be in the groove.
     
    #169     Feb 21, 2010
  10. Examine the forum in which this thread resides.

    QED as they say at Tech.

    today we ar doing the proof that surf ? doesn't have a quant or a firm with a quant. This is called an indirect proof or spoof proof.
     
    #170     Feb 21, 2010