Trend Following depends on Prediction

Discussion in 'Trading' started by AFJ Garner, Apr 6, 2013.

  1. Untill it can be quantified and tested, what else could it be other than mysticism?

    I hear TA folks all over his site, and in real life saying "that pattern or that price action, or this signal increase the odds of a succesful entry" unfortunately, for them, but clear to me, is the fact that in order for there to be ODDS, it must be quantifiable--- however, their this and that IS NOT QUANTIFIABLE OR TESTABLE therefore its not ODDS but rather mysticism and hope not to mention a MISUSE of the term ODDS.

    surf
     
    #21     Apr 7, 2013
  2. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    Nonsense. Going with a probability or likelihood is not prediction.
     
    #22     Apr 7, 2013
  3. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    I know one thing that is quantifiable, your successive massive losses ignoring simple price action.
     
    #23     Apr 7, 2013
  4. Probabilities AKA liklehood. don't exist in your world. Probabilities are a product of quantification. Your TA patterns and price action can't be quantified--- therefore they are outside of the world of probabilities .
     
    #24     Apr 7, 2013
  5. Once you place the trade it's a prediction be default. Otherwise why would you place it?
     
    #25     Apr 7, 2013
  6. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    Complete nonsense smurf.
     
    #26     Apr 7, 2013
  7. lcranston

    lcranston

    I agree. Price is either trending or ranging. If one buys or shorts an exit from a trading range, he's going to be in a trend, unless the breakout was false, in which case he'll be back in the trading range, which must eventually end. If a trend ensues, it may be short-lived or extensive, but it will be a trend.
     
    #27     Apr 7, 2013
  8. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    After publicly humiliating yourself, again, I'm surprised you'd think anyone would still read your tripe anymore jack.
     
    #28     Apr 7, 2013
  9. kut2k2

    kut2k2

    Are you kidding? TA is tested all the time; it's called backtesting. That's how we measure the worth of a trading system whether it's TA-based or has any other basis. I've even posted a thread called "System Performance Score" detailing how best to compare different trading systems based on their backtest results.

    All very quantitative, surf.
     
    #29     Apr 7, 2013
  10. You are correct in what you have said.

    People who enter the trading field begin with your comment as a starting point.

    Obviously, then they set goals for their future work.

    I found a set of 56 elements and I tested to find if there were more. There are no more.

    These elements are now defined precisely mathematically.

    If market participants were competing, then I would become a parasite since that would be appropriate considering my small size. So in Harris's terms I am a parasite who is technically inclineded by virtue of my systemic orientation and that I have a complete and tested set of elements.

    Each information parcel is identical as it is being supplied to me. In other words I am delivered consistent exacting information content and this information content fits into 1 of 56 unique elements of a complete set.

    Surf, you were given one by me and I gave you the rules for using it to always be able to make money. This is a segway to what you left out of your posit.

    there is much much more to undrstanding the operation of the market than you present. All you presented was the common starting point nearly everyone, including yourself, uses.

    Trend drivers are the next step. So is understanding the unique role of market variables and market measures whether they be direct, indirect, induced or substitution effects.

    Each new information parcel from any market is either of value or not (statistically significant). That test is made for every unique possible information parcel. This is invariant in any full system of elements.

    Often an information parcel begins as an unknown element. So there is a further requirement to make it known only as a specific known element. therefore, this criteria has to be so high quality that once known it can never dislocate into another mathematical definition. The term usually applied is that the element is irreversable.

    Most people do not get beyond this advanced beginner level.
    The reason is that they do not understand the weight given to the partnership involved in trading. For example, it is not included in this threads scope and bounds.

    The mind works 24/7. 1/5,000th of the activity is conscious. And the merger of the two is done while sleep occurs.

    Most people never have the experience of waking up and having the merger completed. A person knows he has had that experience clearly in a given field.

    the result is that mental shortcuts appear and finally with respect to the field a fully differeintiated mind is operational and part of the partnership. "You always know you know" is the symptom.

    Partnering with the market is like partnering with a car and driving it.

    Trend drivers are always in operation for expert traders. There are no questions about the market that come to mind, ever.

    The mind of the expert, to paint the picture for readers, is just to the right of the Present where the future comes into the Present.

    The market has no noise, no flaws nor any anomalies. An incomplete trader whose mind is not fully differniated sees things. Often the mind replies to the senses that it is seeing noise, flaws or anomalies and is not getting any signals from the constant flow of indicators.

    Someone in this thread introducd myticism. They had the same problem at Plymouth Rock and environs, so they killed people.

    Remarkably some people see me as needing a straight jacket. the viewrs get to see this imprint. Surf says he has me on ignore.
     
    #30     Apr 7, 2013