OK, just a couple of observations here. First, if your actual trading is that good, and given that you now hobnob with some of the bigger names in the industry, then why are you wasting your time with a for-profit web site and not just managing serious money? By all (of your) accounts, you are an expert trader with important friends. Could this puzzle perhaps be solved by referring to Sherlock Holmes' Hound of Baskerville case? Second, thank you for admitting that you do indeed engage in price prediction and forecasting. However, given your propensity to do so, I am puzzled why NickelScalper has not yet taken you to task on this proclivity of yours. Just what kind of an unholy alliance have you two entered into?!
Hank I can't believe this thread is still going strong... lol Hank your views are not about a style (trend following) they are about individuals and there performance. This is like saying that Bobby Orr can't score anymore so Hockey is dead... I don't think so my friend! It's simply a changing of the guards ... see you at the top soon Hank.
Excellent analogy! But don't bother saving a seat at the top for hanksurfer just yet. He's too busy enjoying himself bottom-feeding.
A gentle description, with Java applet + sound... http://www.nt.e-technik.uni-erlangen.de/~rabe/SYSTOOL/SYSTOOL2.02/HTTP/wien.htm
Could we do it in such a way that if I were to make some suggestions and comments, they would be part of the trading as well? I am supposing the answer is yes. Anyway, I would like to note a few things at the beginning so my limitations are clear to others and then they will not expect too much regarding a lot of things that I do not know about. First, I have not met anyone so far who can backtest. Nothing that I suggest in what I write has been backtested by others successfully for many reasons. They test and then produce comments to explain this and that. most commentary is OT it turns out. Personally I do not back test, but I do (for equities) a statistical thing on each equity to see if it fits into the universe that I use. This is saying that I preselect a set of stocks that do what I want them to do. It makes it easier to make money. Second, I deal with a NOW orientation. a sort of symmetry of history philosophy. NOW is most important and the near future is most affected by the near past. This means that I would watch the graphs go along in time and once I came off the sidelines, then I would continue to trade it from that point onward. Practically speaking, this brings up two points. A. I need to let the starting point of the graphs go off the page. B. the graphs run up against the right side of the display, I am not used to that since most of my annotations are in the space where the price is going to move to. Third, I looked at each of the graphs and they appear to be unusual. This means a lot of things. And, of course, that is very valuable for us all. By going into a new place to examine making money, a lot can be learned. We can also learn why these graphs are different from the markets that we use to make money. A real plus. Fourth, When I look at graphs I usually have about 7 different time scales to consider. It is a very simple concept about the reality of markets. No person making money just looks at one representation of the market on one scale. This is a small point for working with things with you so we can skip it, it turns out. Fifth, my situation is like the weather, it changes a lot. So I request that you tolerate the nature of my erratic responses. As a warm up drill lets run all five graphs (As an equity problem) and in a matter of three or four adjustments, learn how much to add to each graph in a few increments of processing. As I follow equities I do not over lap charts except for one aspect. I do a % change simultaneous over lap that refreshes about every 15 minutes. This is just to easily understand that my hold positions are working their way along their expected money making path. I need to be able to see the charts individually to annotate them. So with regard to the above, we can work out a simple process. You can make up all the charts we need immediately. All I need to have is the progression revealed to me step by step. I have done these kinds of things over the years in real time with real stuff. I have done it in two basic ways: as the market unfolds and before the market unfolds. NOW and using "anticipation". There is little difference in how it turns out. So I will get a set of charts. I will annotate and do a log. Then I will recieve a new chart and repeat. Since my annotations are "leading" I will just superimpose the new piece on the old (paste it on) and make new annotations. The objective is to continually extract money from the charts as one would in trading commodities. So we get to do a family of graphs concurrently and trade them long and short and continually. By looking at the charts I can see the trading units (smallest moves). I also can just record units on the log. I'll try to do 20 to 40 cycles of this by next monday AM. I'll pm you my email address and you can send me stuff and I will return it to you ASAP. Some times people have set up things in other ways and some time I have posted in Bull in real time and sometimes I have narrated for and hour or so on Paltalk. Usually I am strving to transfer stuff to others. Most of the time it is difficult to transfer stuff. This time it will be interesting because of the topic of random.
Thanks for the reply. In addition, to say that something is, to some extent, predictable is not inconsistent with it having a random component according to my definition.
Is this a one on one matter or something that others can follow along. Certainly, this will be most interesting...
why does todd harrison run a site ? why do i run a site, and hang around on et ? first , i learn alot from ET thru conversation and reading. in trading one is constantly learning and ET is a good source for info. secondly--i enjoy writing and building buisinesses it not a waste of time- its FUN ! hank