Look for the word bracket. You do not see the word up in my post. I am obviously more risk adverse than you are. As I see it, there is never a reason to predict price direction as an initial action of the day. Prediction must often accompanies an orientation to pairs of actions involving entry and exit. Money is not made by either of these decisions. Money is made by being in the market in an orientation that accumulates capital. "Do I enter? is a question answered by the market when it hits an order that is placed to bound market movement. After that there is only one Q on the table. The decision to hold is the most important single decision that can be made and made repeatedly when any market change occurs(market change is the basis of making money) and it is possible to continue making money. "Can I continue to make money with this market change?" A yes means hold. A no means reverse and then continue to make money. There is no d question. Knowing all the possibilities for continuing to make money is not discussed in ET very much. There is a set of major possibilities and verniers for each of these. so the market is, in effect, a series of operating points where money is mde continually and the market migrates in a most orderly way from one to another. the path is determined primarily by other alternatives being successively closed until few or only one opportunity remains. So I am definitely off topic in terms of the thread originator and the thread ursurper. i do not wish to screw up either the originator's nor the usurper's themes.
I don't think that is necessarily the case. As an alternative, a method can merely suggest a very short-term directional bias in order to have utility, both for shorter-term and longer-term trades (as I mentioned in my post on page 53 of this thread). Identifying a very small (and potentially fleeting) directional bias is far murkier and considerably less elegant than arriving at a specific price expectation. How wonderful it would be if I could predict price! However, until I become clairvoyant, my above-described compromise will serve me well.
The challenge is to provide a comprehensive method (approach) using d and then call future trades using it which make money and which you can undrstand. I did that for today between 2:08 and 3:15. The market does some of the work. entry:_______ Bracket (around 2:00pm):_____ and ______. Market hits one of them Reverse:________(DOM extreme), Profit______ Reverse:_______DOM extreme),profit______ Reverse:_______(DOM extreme), profit_____ Exit@ 3:15(watch clock) Profit_______ Did I get it right????
So you agree that using a trendfollowing system would give the trader the "edge" he needs to be profitable?
Please explain how a method can usefully "suggest a very short-term directional bias" without being able to anticipate whether price will move both in the right direction and to a certain minimum extent after the trader commits to an entry.
Jack. For once I can't disagree with anything you said. But being a contrarian I doubt that the market will respond today with the whipsaw that has characterized recent rate hikes, if only because we have come to expect it. I don't have access to my charting today or I would pull up examples. Your point about having no profit expectations is well made in the context of this thread. Gratefully take what you are given and move on.