trend following delusion shattered

Yeah, but that's like saying my wife actually thinks I'm totally boring, but because she still married me it just goes to show how fabulously rich/handsome/skilled in the sack I am? I don't know if it's such a compliment

 

There are times that the market whipsaws creating losses fo TFs also because TF never get out at the high there are always Drawdowns, that is part of the risk they take. No one can be profitable 100% of the time in any business. It takes an outlay of capital to make money in any business venture. As for the 40% number, I would like to know which of Henry's funds you are looking at. His Strategic Allocation Program' s largest drawdown is 31%, that is his largest fund. It made 13 % last year, so I don't understand how you are "shattering" the trend following delusion. Maybe you should try it yourself.

Cordially

5yr

 

Oh and his biggest drawdown of 31% came last year when Henry was UP 13% for the year

 

I haven't noticed a single responsive answer to my challenge question.

 

Sok, I apparently make my money in total ignorance as well *shrug*

 

Thats because your question is idiotic. You are asking someone to say what the future price of a market is going to be, or at least asking exactly how much profit someone intends to make on a given trade. If someone can't you are declaring an end to trendfollowing. I don't know why I care, but setting profit targets is exactly what TFers don't do. If a market is going up why should you sell? If it reaches your p1 or d or what ever and is still going up why would you sell? Limit losses LET PROFITS RUN genius

Sincerly,

5yr

 

Apparently, last time with $10,000 was much more attractive than this time.

 

Thanks 5yr for your patience.

Probably you're the number N poster to provide the same correct answer in this thread, however in a different (perhaps a better) format.

 

It seems that if the Imaginary Trend were a reality, the following challenge question would have been answered by now:

What is a reliable method that can be applied to past price action to determine a usefully large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be the market price in the near future?

I'm looking for an answer to be posted here in plain text form. The proof of the answer is also to be posted here, as real time trading calls that specify on what basis the proposed method is being invoked and a target price.

Attention: There's no need to give up anything secret. Surely, someone must know of a second or third rate method that's beneath their dignity to employ.

 

Jesus, I quit