I can only interpret your semi-coherent reply in terms that must come as a disappointment to a large portion of the readership of this thread. Moving on, to those who would like to aid this exercise in the betterment of trading for the entire ET community, the challenge question remains.
5yr--- another question--as you know the big trend fund is down 40%--if its so easy to find trend--why would the best be having such a hard time ?
Q "Guidance from a theoretical statistian is necessary, however. ... It is good advice to anyone that is interested in improving his ability to find problems and to help in their solution to take any course that he can get into theoretical or applied statistics (including, of course, decision theory and theory of failure), provided the teacher is competent in theory." --- W. Edwards Deming (Out of the Crisis) UQ
What you have proposed is beside the point of the challenge question at hand which requires a prediction of d.
Trading with the trend Profit = $490,163 sharpe = .59 Max Drawdown =17.78% % of stops hit = 45% Trading againist the trend Profit = ($638,374), thats negative for accounting majors sharpe = -.71 Max Drawdown = 35.67% % of stops hit = 73% as a Feb 28 this system was down from its peak of $2,000,000 by ~32%. It didn't have one day of profit I can test other markets over different time frames if anyone would like.
not at all, in fact, quite the opposite--- it shows what a good trader the person is--he can take something that has NO statistical edge yet still make consistent money..it simply shows his skill as a trader --not the validity of the underlying philosophy.
Speaking for others again I see. If you haven't noticed you trend naysayers are outnumbered. The patience for the Nickel has expired.
Speaking for others again I see Nickel. If you haven't noticed you trend naysayers are outnumbered. Semi coherent? I suppose it is for someone who can't formulate an equation from object points such as fixed support & resistance. The patience for the Nickel has expired.