Very poignant. Only one of the two bounds changes with increased market activity. And trends overlap. It takes a very long time for most people to move away from the concept of buying and selling. At best most people are able to buy on the right side and sell on the left side. To be able to substitute reasoning for buying and selling is a tough chore to undertake. If reasoning is used then the subject is making money. there are only two singular decisions that relate to making money. Buying and selling most be worked as a pair where one of them is done before the answer for other can be known. This is a very tough place to operate no matter what the subject may be. Converting to singular decision making where each independant decision accomplishes all that can be done is a superior way to operate. This means that there is no first decision that needs a second decision to detrmine the first decision was correct. Having boundaries and indepentant decisions to make is a whole other world.
What is a reliable, publicly available method that can be applied to past price action to determine a usefully large positive or negative number d such that (p1-p0)>=d, where p0 is the current market price and p1 will be the market price in the near future? I'm looking for your answer to be posted here, not contained in a pdf at another site, "watch me trade," "I am successful," etc. Second, the proof of your answer is also to be posted here, in the form of real time trading calls that specify on what basis your method is being invoked and a target price.
LOL I think I'm done with this thread; the rules keep changing. If one is set against beleiving in China, he won't believe its existence even if you fly him there and put him in the middle of a rice field. I hoped I could convince him, but this has turned into a source of entertianment instead of an informative discussion (actually it happened about page 30). P.S. I did my work for the day. It was a nice trend trade too.
From my experience that if saying prediction meaning exactly where something will be, then no it is impossible to predict. However, using software the recognizes common patterns such as support and resistance and other technical patterns, http://www.trade-ideas.com/Help.html#CARC, allows a good trader to make better guesses than someone just randomly picking a direction. At least that is how I have been in this game for 10+ years.
This thread has just advanced to the third place (in terms of replies) among all "Trends" threads. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/searc...d=721152&sortby=lastpost&sortorder=descending 1st 781 the trend is up, market has bottomed. (lundy) 2nd 460 Why Can't I Trade with the Trend (Flashboy) 3rd 307 trend following delusion shattered (hank rollins) 4th 306 Why Doesn't Anyone Understand Trend? (ProLogic)
That reminds me this thread: $10,000 Challenge... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=43072&highlight=$10+000
Congratulations on your success. What I'm looking for is a formulation of method aside from the luck that keeps the rare practitioner of an essentially random system from going broke.