Except, he hasn't asked the same question over a two day period - let alone 250 days. Each time someone answers the question (and by my count three individuals have done so - including myself) he alters the question to exclude: .pdf files or methodology based offsite or off-thread. Each new constraint added allows him to exclude previous answers given. It is one thing to ignore answers requiring a modicum of effort to fully comprehend. It is quite another to state the answers weren't provided in the first place. - Spydertrader
Hank your comment here is a good one. Well at least I think so because it is the very reason that I like to use a major moving average as a reason to get in on a trend. Lol, which of course raises once again the question that has been discussed previously, and explored by ourselves professionally, paraphrased - "does it pay to enter a trade when price crosses a moving average?" But, on topic, I rarely enter a trade based on trend just because the price has been trending because as I mentioned earlier, empirically I have no reason to believe that what price has been doing is an indication of what price will do. To provide an answer - but certainly not the definitive answer - to the question "what use are trends...", trends provide upper and lower boundaries for trend lines which can be used to determine a change in trend.
What he and others are saying is that while there is no set of rules that can satisfy your demand, trend following is still a valid concept. So is trend fading. By valid concept I mean you can base a trading methodology on it that makes consistent money. This is independent of your demand. You have to understand conditional probability to understand why. All consistent money making requires are the things that Lefty described.
I believe I answered the question at hand with a very simplistic study about half way back in this thread. It was overly simple, and is not scientific at all, but it did satisfy the criteria stated by NickelScalper. He has not viewed it and his only comment was to repeat his set of questions yet agian. I find it amusing this has gotten 50 pages of attention. There is a tendancy for future price to follow trends. My simple little experiment shows this. About 90% of the posters on this thread know this. There's no use beating a dead horse. All of this reminds me of a story my brother tells. He walks into the laundromat in the late evening in the winter to see this crazy lady in there wearing nothing but a trenchcoat. She starts talking to him and he tries to ignore her until she gets on the topic of religion. He tells her she doesn't believe in God and that means he doesn't exist. Then she launches into a philosophical rant about if you don't believe in something, it doesn't exist. He says "I don't believe in China." She says "Then it doesn't exist!!!" There's a lot more to this true story and I am paraphrasing, but I think a couple of people on here are crazy women. People have made up their minds and no proof will change that.
Indeed Which brings to my mind one of my favorite quotes: Never wrestle with a pig; you'll waste your time, get dirty and the pig will enjoy it Cheers