Speaking of math-based methods, I'm waiting for the arrival of Long Term Capital Management II. Like all bad horror flicks, it's gotta have a sequel...
Something is effectively random to the extent that its causes are not known in a way that makes it predictable. The chart of price does not reveal any tendency that extrapolates into the future. Instead, future price is random with respect to past price, as is proved by the very low serial correlation of price. Unpredictability is a consequence of market efficiency, which says that all publicly available information is already in the market price.
It is impossible to reliably predict whether the price will be higher or lower in one hour based solely on past price using publicly available methods.
I only use the high, low an close and can "predict" the future. Predictions should be correct for at least 90% of the time. I will post my predictions in real time. The only problem is that i cannot give all the signals i see because i'am at my work till approx 5 PM gmt time, which was 20 minutes ago. It happens frequently that i can predict the trend for two - three hours in the future. But instead of playing the game of yes and no it's better to proof what someone says. For me it was short from the opening and the trend will stay short for at least 1 hour to go, probably even 2 hours. When i say the trend is short i don't mean the bottom. I mean that in that period you should never go long.
yes that's not important, the most important thing is to PROVE that what you say really works. If i say how many points i make i will get idiot remarks : why don't you live in the carribean? you must be the richest man in the world ! if professionals can't make it how would you be able to make it ? it commonly known that what you say is impossible etc...etc... I past that stage already a long time ago.