Thank you for the considered response. The specific criteria are met, or not, in an experimental setting. Not that it proves anything, but I'm immediately skeptical of the efficacy of such a system considering how much of your competition is looking for a method along just those lines. However, if it does work, you have my congratulations. It's possible to verify your method by posting in real time to this thread when and on what specific basis you wish to invoke it, the instrument and a target price. How about Monday?
Again, a circular response. Please define exactly what you mean by "specific minimum difference between present and near-future price". If you can give me a clear meaning of this phrase, then I have an idea what you want to see. If not, this is just a complicated string of words with no meaning. You addressed my question by saying "if you can't achieve such a difference, then you don't have a tradable edge" but you never clarified the phrase in question. Also, you are putting the burden of proof on my shoulders (i.e. a defensive stance). Can you prove what you say? Edit: Does any one else find it a little pathetic that we all have nothing better to do on a Sunday than argue this question on an online message board? It's really quite sad......I find myself checking the boards like every 15 minutes or so.
Perhaps you should re-read my post. I was not "replying to the challenge" that you presented. Nor did I attack you. Here's what I said: Seems to me that after reading page after page of your comments on "trend following" that it is a fair question to ask what you believe in. How do you feel that this question is an "off-topic personal attack"? But one thing that does come to mind: a guy "scalping" for a "nickle" would probably not be the authority I would go to for an opinion on "trend following". What do you think? But I will tell you this: there is no way a winning trader isn't FORCED to attempt to follow a trend. The minute you put a position on your goal is to see it move in a direction...period. In other words, you take the position with the idea that it will "trend" in your direction. It's really that simple unless of course you're "scalping" for a "nickle". But perhaps you can simply answer the question that I asked to begin with. OldTrader
Specify a combination of publicly available tools that can be used to determine a number d such that | p1 - p0 | is greater than or equal to d, where p1 is a near-future price and p0 is the current market price. As far as proof goes, any proposed method, in this case price trend following, must be proven before it can be trusted as a basis upon which to trade.
First off, you literally replied to my challenge by quoting it in your post. You used "pontifications" as a pejorative, so you engaged in a personal attack. Whether or not I choose to scalp for nickels has no bearing on the validity of the arguments I put forward here.
You are most welcome. I had no intention of proving or disproving your theory. Rather, it appeared to me that my methods contradicted your statement. I hoped you could tell me why. I do actually trade these methods. I encourage a healthy dose of skepticism by everyone who reads the Journal, and have received numerous warnings via email and ET PM warning me to stop giving away the secrets the big boys already use. I don't want anyone to believe on my word alone the successful results of the methods. I expect everyone interested to perform their own DD. I simply placed all the tools into one toolbox. The decision to use the tools placed there remains one of individual choice. I have done this very thing each day for the last six months in my Journal focusing on a certain set of stocks posted the previous evening and monitoring their volume throughout the morning of the next day - determining if the system triggers a buy signal or not. In addition I have specified the steps required to perform the tasks by anyone interested without relying on my posts and decision making, in order for everyone following along to see in real-time exactly what I see. In the first few posts of the Journal I outlined the methods used to create a list of stocks to monitor, the exact entry criteria required for a buy signal to develop and the exact confirming parameters required to enter into a trade and hold beyond EOD.
Hey, I'd like to be wrong on this one. Surf some trends while having a few of beers after the open, then hit the beach for the real thing by noon. Oh, what a world it would be!
Certainly it puts it all in a new perspective for us though now doesn't it? You're the guy running the 50 yard dash trying to explain to the marathon runners why their race doesn't make any sense. Thanks for the answer....I now know what value to put on your comments. OldTrader
More answers here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=42501 Q Posted by NickelScalper on 12-16-04 05:30 AM: Re: So... This trading plan requires a 1c gain on average per trade to offset commissions. Not difficult. To make any real profit requires an increase in the capital base, true enough. That comes after proof of concept. Good trading. __________________ Trading and baseball are diamonds in the rough. UQ Q Posted by NickelScalper on 01-13-05 02:03 AM: I'm experimenting with a new trading style, so there's an ambulance on standby. This is intended more as a venue to record and review trades, rather than a scintillating and educational discussion thread. If the latter is what you're looking for, try someplace like Mr. Merchant's "Old Possum" journal up the street. 38.09 exit, for a 2 cent gain. UQ