trend following delusion shattered

Discussion in 'Trading' started by hank rollins, Mar 15, 2005.

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  1. gnome

    gnome

    To make the big money, you have to be able to play BOTH the "trend" and the "range".

    1. You have to figure out when to shift gears... easier said than done.

    2. Most successful traders seem to be relatively successful at one and not very good at the other.... I believe this is because they have their mindset "geared" for one so that the other hurts them.
     
    #1891     Dec 11, 2007
  2. this sounds good..... however, don't you think 99% of traders would be wiped out trying to do it?

    and then there is the VIG......you pay win or lose. making losses so much bigger and wins so much smaller.

    surf
     
    #1892     Dec 11, 2007
  3. And you know for a fact that this is how they all uniformly conduct themselves? That must have been quite an empirical study on your part.
     
    #1893     Dec 11, 2007
  4. gnome

    gnome

    I wouldn't think "99% wiped out" necessarily, but it's difficult no doubt.

    Years ago I was much better at playing the range, but now I appear to be equally lousy at both.
     
    #1894     Dec 11, 2007
  5. The vigorish of commission plus spread is absolutely inconsequential to your present YM trade which is approximately 600 points against you. Had you exercised a little more discretion, your vig might have been a bit higher, but your drawdown would be substantially lower. It needs not be one extreme or the other, either all vig or nearly none at all. However, you continue to blather in absolutes. Why is that? Why do you incessantly blather in absolutes, from one post to the next and from one thread to the next? Please tell me.
     
    #1895     Dec 11, 2007


  6. based on publically available information, this can be deduced.

    ofcourse, there are some who try to "time the market" but they generally get chopped to bits moving that much size. the predatory funds simply lay in wait chopping these guys to shreds on their every move. they can't hide and get crushed.

    trend following is buy hold by the big boys, can't be any other way today, in my opinion.

    surf
     
    #1896     Dec 11, 2007
  7. Let's not forget MAN's heavyweight AHL, up 24.8% YTD net of fees through Dec 3, 2007.
     
    #1897     Dec 11, 2007

  8. yes, except the blather part.:D :p :D

    HOWEVER,

    at what point does the vig become inconsequential? perhaps, i may have entered 50 times trying to catch the top in this move.... is this what you suggest? then my drawdown would have been larger. it's all so easy in hindsight....

    surf
     
    #1898     Dec 11, 2007

  9. yeah. what changed, you or the markets?

    thanks,

    surf
     
    #1899     Dec 11, 2007
  10. So is that it? Either once or 50 times? Did you catch my earlier reference about your speaking in absolutes? (While 50 times is not an absolute, it comes close enough to validate my claim about your black and white comparisons.)
     
    #1900     Dec 11, 2007
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