Thanks Quant. A little market group of which i am a member has been discussing FUNDX over the last several weeks. Its a fund of mutual funds and ETF's--- some very interesting statistical studies were performed ( which in respect for privacy) i am not going to repost but suffice to say the results were very telling to say the least. best wishes, surf
I do understand your inconsistent variable definition of a driftless stochastic (which, by the way means "GUESS" in Greek ) process environment as it tries to justify an environment YOU say isn't strictly definable in the first place. I, probably better than most, understand the Brownian aspect of price movement and how it differs what that stuff you do. The "Levy Process" and it's statistical gobblety goop and probabilities are irrelevant to what I do. (What you lean a new term at the "Trader's Expo"?) I understand your math/statistical references in detail. I understand your trading rational . . . and see from it's results in "The Surf Report" (your self absorbed egomaniacal pseudo blog) that your typical hedge fund throw-the-spagetti-against-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks-seat-of-your-pants-trading-style doesn't work. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out either. You simple need to read your own journal. Math has absolutely nothing to do with what I do. I know it is a factor in your world but your world is a realm of calculations and subjective decisions based on those calculations inside a variable environment. Mine is a realm of fixed and real points & real price oscillations. Simply put, my trading environment is solely based on price, yours is based on discretionary calculations in a subjective environment. Price is perfect. Once a price bar is printed . . . it is DONE!! You are still trying to figure out what calculation to apply to what set of numbers and how you can curve fit your decision to fit your trade. You, in no way shape or form, understand a single morsel of the environment I trade in so don't even begin to pretend you do. You are a typical institutional hedge fund trader (if that) and nothing more and it pisses you off to no end that someone knows something you don't know. Sorry Buddy but welcome to the real world and how life progresses. I offered to show you what I do so you could at least talk intelligently about it and even condemn it IF you could prove it wrong but you prefer to stand on the sidelines like a little child and throw stones at what you can't comprehend. Over the last 3 years of me helping traders in this forum your credibility has diminished exponentially because of your closed minded attitude. You would think a relatively bright individual would have figured that out by now so this is even more evidence to your brilliance. Stick to commenting on the closed environment you are comfortable with and leave that which you have no knowledge of to those that have the knowledge.
The following was sent to me and is posted here through permission of the poster. ____________________________________________________ "Drift" Hello Prof I hope you won't mind if I suggest something to you. You have my permission to post this PM if you wish. The idea that market processes are "driftless" is not correct. In fact various markets within the larger "stock market" exhibit strong latent and mean drift. Following is an academic citation relating to the dynamics surrounding the interest rate market. http://www.tc.umn.edu/~lbenzoni/html/research/abl2.pdf Based on his prior comments, it is clear that MarketSurfer has little or no understanding of complex math, so it is unlikely that he will "get it"..For those who might benefit, the paper (and this is only one of many) suggests that when short term rates move a certain distance from a mean, at some point the rubber band snaps back. This tendency for rates to exibit "drift" about a mean is well known by professionals who have traded it for decades. Ironically, if "a person" really understood the concept ("drift") was, they would see that there is a nice opportunity to profit, instead blindly calling tops & bottoms, and then saying they were "early". This "trade" (short term rate) is a variation of the "ted spread" and was taught to me over a decade ago by several good professionals. While the ignorance is understandable, it is the resistance to take a real look (or do their own research), that causes skilled professionals to ask "what do I need this for" and leave. You know, although this site doesn't work for me anymore, I think its probably a good thing that MarketSurfer has a place where he can live out his fantasy of being a trader. Best Regards, Steve46
you can watch "What the bleep do we know" here: http://thesecretstory.com/Watch_What_the_Bleep_Do_We_Know.html
looks like the trend following managed futures traders had another dismal month in Feb 2007. http://www.hedgeindex.com/hedgeindex/en/default.aspx?cy=USD regards, surf
Sorry for them but one fund doesn't make a mindset. It's like saying that 30 people died at my local hospital this last month so if I'm sick I don't want to go there. What was the performance of my picks last month bud?
with all due respect, professor, perhaps you should stick with short term market trading rather than vague psycho--market structure commentary. indexes are used ,across the board ,to gauge the vibrancy and performance of sectors/strategies. this has nothing to do with mindsets. im confused as to what you are refering. regrards, surfinator