trend following delusion shattered

Discussion in 'Trading' started by hank rollins, Mar 15, 2005.

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  1.  
    #1831     Jan 7, 2007
  2. Anyone have a eureka moment?

    I was looking at the charts in different markets, and found something universal to pretty much all the markets.

    Its regarding trendfollowing, to those that are applying this, may already know what I'm talking about.

    I'm a scalper at heart, but do to time constraints, would rather not have to follow minute to minute nuiances in the price action. It does help for a intrasession session trade.

    Its regarding variables:

    Stop Loss
    Take Profit
    Equity
    Lot Size
    Linear Regression Period


    Chris
     
    #1832     Jan 7, 2007
  3. WinDiff

    WinDiff

    "...I am impressed with the success of both Toby Crabel and John W. Henry. Victor Niederhoffer is an entirely different story..."

    A Picture's Worth a Thousand Words? :D
     
    #1833     Jan 7, 2007

  4. Once again, all of Mr. Henry's funds were down for 2006.

    In addiiton, all but one have been down over the last 3 years.

    Here's the world's premiere trend follower, with the maximum capital in the history of the markets, with the finest everything money can buy and he obviously still can't find the trend. Yet the trend followers are still hanging on platitudes like--- "look at a chart from across the room and you will see if there is a trend"or "trends are obvious. just look" How many more years of losses untill these guys throw in the towel?

    regards,

    surfer
     
    #1834     Jan 14, 2007
  5. doublea

    doublea

    Couldn't it be possible that he just got on the wrong side of the trend? That's what it looks like to me.
     
    #1835     Jan 14, 2007
  6. LOL. Surf, can you find the trend in this stock?
    The one you shorted 7 points ago?
    Just in case you forgot, here's the link:
    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83138&highlight=mfw
     
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    #1836     Jan 14, 2007
  7. Vienna

    Vienna

    Presumably, around the same number it takes you to get tired shorting new highs?
     
    #1837     Jan 14, 2007

  8. Yes, in multi markets, across the board.

    This adds fuel to my argument that trend following is the same as buy and hold. It can work huge on occassion and for the outliers--but the majority simply make market or less( since they churn) returns.

    regards, surf
     
    #1838     Jan 14, 2007

  9. No,I can't forget this trade. VERY poor form on my part. The worst part, is if you look, I was long initially--my research and contacts said BUY, but I faded instead. Simply stupid, and I paid the price.

    See you in NYC! surf
     
    #1839     Jan 14, 2007
  10. Yeah, see you there. But you're not going to want to go to that 99cent steak place are you? :)
     
    #1840     Jan 14, 2007
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