I prefer to use the objective definitions of words, although I have nothing against artistic sensibilities--- just believe its important that the progenitor and readers, of such, are aware of the flexible definitions used. do you believe you can make money( phony, of course) from a randomly generated price series when superimposed onto your "non varying" environment? regards, surfer
I prefer objective definitions myself. Price, oscillations, environments, non-varying, movement, structure, chaos, encapsulating, stable, fixed and readable are all easily and objectively definable. First, I'm not superimposing price onto anything. All I am doing is viewing price on a chart that is created using volume bars which are a non-varying way to see price movement and then using a single indicator to confirm the strength and weakness of that price movement from its real-time created oscillations. Nothing extraordinary . . . just consistently simple. I not only believe I can make real money trading in this environment . . . I do.
This is from Ed Seykota's website, thought this was interesting given the discussion: "All methods of defining trends compare various combinations of historical price points. All trends are historical, none are in the present. There is no way to determine the current trend, or even define what current trend might mean; we can only determine historical trends. The only way to measure a now-trend (one entirely in the moment of now) would be to take two points, both in the now and compute their difference. Motion, velocity and trend do not exist in the now. They do not appear in snapshots. Trend does not exist in the now and the phrase, "the trend" has no inherent meaning. When we speak of trends, we are speaking, necessarily, from some or another view of history. There is no such thing as a current trend. When we speak of trends we are necessarily projecting our own definitions. "
Yep, poor old Seykota. You know it seems to me that Ed's life "arc" is headed in the same direction as old Dr. Timothy Leary. Does anyone remember the guru of LSD, who coined the phrase "tune in, turn on, drop out" in the 60's...Check out this bio on Wikipedia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Leary Ed and his "trading tribe" crap are strangely remininscent of Dr. Leary and his tragic life. Steve
This article by Raschke may be of interest: http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/articles/general_articles/trend-days/
Altucher is a smart cookie, you gotta give him that. But this "trend following is dead AS OF RIGHT NOW (today)" top has been called dozens of times. Just browse your copy of Market Wizards and you see old school traders that could be Altuchers Daddy proclaiming the death of trend followers way back in 1988.
Has Altucher ever made a dime in any of his "public" funds? I'm not referring to his private vcap investments.
I think his company is called Formula Capital. Anybody have performance numbers for the last 3 years?