I love this forum. Everyone expresses strong opinions, one way or the other, but with nothing to back them up. Can we have a few facts please? Attached is a chart showing a breakout and a nice little 15 or 20 cent trend. Or for others, a rather large scalp. Or for bighog, maybe it is only a retrace? Whatever it was, it came close to the daily pivot (55.69) as well as the high volume of the day (55.70). It also shows a few good rebounds off of 12 minute Bollinger Bands, along with the obligatory walk-the-band scenario in a couple of spots. So... using the diagram as an example, when is a trend not a trend, or when someone can 'anticipate' a trend, does this chart indicate any of those intuitive trading locations, or is it too 'busy' to show those nice 'clean' trade setups?
right. let me guess: time machine! it starts to move, then we go back in time and follow before it starts, right?
sorry guys. just makin' fun of it. this is going to be one of these endless debates one has with discretionary traders. useless for all. nevertheless, good trading to you.
"Please define what you mean by "more defined and consistent strategies". Here is an entire thread that details the parameters of those specific definitions to create those referred to consistencies. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=80582&highlight=Tick+Charts "in addition, being that price moves based on order imbalances, how can any system that artificially creates a template or order to the price moves possibly have any relevance other than to paint a pretty picture of the past?" Probably because there is nothing artificial about creating a structured environment around price where the normal noise of the market is eliminated. Volume Bar charts aren't artificial they are simply a perfectly consistent and non-varying way to view price oscillations and the strength that each oscillation creates. They aren't creating a "pretty picture" of the past they are creating a consistently accurate snap shot of the past price oscillations. Trends will continue until they reverse and they will reverse with the same consistency as they were created . . . if they are viewed in a constant environment. "furthermore, when the standard statistical tests are applied to any price series, consistency in motion is not defined enough to create an edge in any time frame. why do you think this is?" This one is really easy . . . because standard statistical tests work on variable environments (the markets viewed under typical conditions using typical methods) to give one a basis of where the edge would lie which is a critical flaw. In a non-varying static environment there is no need to find and edge in all of the noise because the non-varying environment itself "IS" the edge. Every argument you have every thrown at me Surf has always originated with your basis of reasoning in the market and never from a point where the shear variable nature of the market is eliminated. Until you are able to understand that this environment CAN be created and it is NOT an artificial environment will you begin to see the potential and the shear beauty of a noiseless market. "why this delusion persists and is perpetrated by the market machinery is to extract the max capital out of the max number of players." I agree but the delusion exists in those that believe that consistency can never be achieved. This is not meant as a slam Surf or to create an argument but your profit from your short in the DOW evaporated again today NOT because of some unforeseen freak of nature but simply the Trend playing itself out and continuing on its way. I told you TWO MONTHS ago the the DOW was in a Bull Trend and would continue until it reverses. From then until now there has been no oscillation created IN REAL-TIME that would have given one the heads-up a reversal was created. For the last TWO MONTHS the Trend that was strongly establishing in the DOW has continued to play out. Not a "pretty picture" of the past but a perfectly consistant snap shot of the past that is continuing to play out through today.
delusion schoomsion. i got two guys up 20%+ for me this year, one guy break even. they can do better, but i'll take it. when there's a rumble in the currency market, they're making money. it's nice cuz i it's dollar crash insurance, but i own the policy which keeps increasing in value.
I for one have posted plenty of charts and detailed explanations to back up my research. One must then take the initiative to gather up the information and play the scenarios out for themselves. In regards to your posted chart . . . pop art . . . hard rock . . . noisy as hell . . . but that is my opinion. I personally like trading to smooth jazz. My posted chart is just an older eMini Dow chart from the 4th of December. I would have posted a longer term one but I'm in the process of replacing the power supply in my main system right now. I'll post another longer term one tomorrow for all of you. Again for those not familiar with my charts, those oscillations, labels and trend lines are created in real-time by a computer program.
Trends do exist. Trading trends profitably CAN be as simple as using multiple moving averages to find buying points with low risk. All you have to do is look for compression of the averages as displayed in the following chart. There are many ways to skin a cat. This is just one of them.