Any trader worth her/his salt will "SEE" the trend before it starts (visualization). Just like a golfer as example "SEES" the drive off the "T" going straight down the visualized destination, the golfer pictures in the mind a perfect swing etc before the ball is even hit. Read Jack "golden Bear" book. Would a General go into battle without a battle plan, would he not have the results pictured in his mind first? When the battle starts the General would adjust to the unfolding battle. A trader must understand a trend is not a trend until it displays a trend. Taking a breakout is not trend trading, breakout failures and breakout retraces are not to be confused with trend trading. Attempting to catch a trend before one starts is where the visualize comes into play. BEFORE you go doing something stupid like guessing the exact tick to fade etc, you must have a pre-set plan of action to deploy just in case a trend starts. You will know the odds of a breakout failure, you will have filters, such as a less than 5% move on a breakout is under suspicion, or if price loses momentum right after the breakout takes out stops. If price shows follow through then you are looking good baby. Do you get in before filters? Do you get in before the breakout? Experience will answer many questions like those and a hundred more. Do not trade like General Custer went into battle and get blindsided when the odds were against him and his only words were" where did all those fucking indians come from?" Be prepared and know what you are looking for.
one CAN"T make their own definitions of terms/words and expect to have an intelligent conversation. Please define what you mean by "more defined and consistent strategies". in addition, being that price moves based on order imbalances, how can any system that artificially creates a template or order to the price moves possibly have any relevance other than to paint a pretty picture of the past? furthermore, when the standard statistical tests are applied to any price series, consistency in motion is not defined enough to create an edge in any time frame. why do you think this is? why this delusion persists and is perpetrated by the market machinery is to extract the max capital out of the max number of players. regards, surfer
heheh... SEEing a trend before it happens is FANTASIZING. predicting a trend from an idea is almost arb from fundamentals, on the other hand. [ie going long oil in early 2000s upon reading about declining oil production and increased consumption] in all seriousness, though, I agree a plan is necessary regardless.
"trend following delusion shattered" is the title of this thread, right? can someone explain to me how to follow something which has not happened yet?
just to save us some time here: you guys are not system traders, right? i mean we could all save some finger tip tissue if we skip the usual beating bush around the whatIsATrendThing if we come straight to the point ...