trend following delusion shattered

Discussion in 'Trading' started by hank rollins, Mar 15, 2005.

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  1. Thank you for the clarification.

    Trends exist for every tradable instrument that is actively traded. Common sense would dictate you can't watch a program on a television that is unplugged.
     
    #1691     Dec 22, 2006
  2. I appreciate you, gifted with high IQ, can understand that kind of complex issues. :)
     
    #1692     Dec 22, 2006
  3. And we appreciate you, to exemplify why the markets are so equally balanced.

    MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU AN YOUR FAMILY.
     
    #1693     Dec 22, 2006
  4. Perhaps there is a kind of double negative logics, besides others about logics, you and your associates on ET would need to teach us, the newbies, more frequently. :D
     
    #1694     Dec 22, 2006

  5. Only in the past.

    Common sense also dictates that you can't trade in the past, regardless how pretty/clear the charts are.

    Once again, if trends have any relevance prior to trade entry, please advise as to how many moves and/or how much volume in one direction dictate that the next move or series will be in the same direction? That is the definition of trend, right, a series of moves in the same direction?

    If a coin flip comes up heads 10 times in a row, are you in a heads trend?

    :D
     
    #1695     Dec 22, 2006
  6. This is coming from a guy who named his fund "Intrendex".
     
    #1696     Dec 22, 2006

  7. intrendX--refering to the upward drifting equity curve.

    merry christmas!

    surfer
     
    #1697     Dec 22, 2006
  8. If you are equating the significance of a trend move in the markets with the insignificance of an apparent trend in coin flips, then maybe it is time for you to consider another occupation. Market moves, whether they are in trend or not, have a psychological effect of one kind or another on the majority of traders. It is the aggregate psychology of the players that moves the markets, whether in one direction or the other. The actual fundamentals can often be tangential. On the other hand, this dynamic is completely absent from one coin toss to the next. Therefore, your coin toss analogy is boneheaded. (I was going to write "misguided," but after 284 pages, "boneheaded" it is.)
     
    #1698     Dec 22, 2006
  9. Surfer, your decision of no longer managing funds has very good backing reasons. :)
     
    #1699     Dec 22, 2006
  10. LOL ..you're a funny guy, surf.

    Happy Holidays to you too. Is it ok with you if I regift my marketsurfer hat? I'm sending it to ZZZZzzzz. :p
     
    #1700     Dec 22, 2006
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