trend following delusion shattered

Discussion in 'Trading' started by hank rollins, Mar 15, 2005.

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  1. We are enjoying doing the traditonal prep etc.; sorry I missed this until now.

    Thanks for commenting. Enjoy these days....
     
    #1681     Nov 24, 2006
  2. The behavior of humans is not random but chaotic and
    since the price is fixed by humans, the markets are chaotic too
    and since there is order in chaos (see physics), markets
    can be exploited, it's as simple as that.
     
    #1682     Nov 24, 2006
  3. This is the longest thread I've seen on ET

    Are you still discussing trend following?
     
    #1683     Nov 24, 2006

  4. yes.


    :D
     
    #1684     Nov 24, 2006
  5. ^^^^^^

    ^^^^^^

    This is some new age fluff from the movie "What the bleep do we know". It is a new age urban legend that the natives could not see Columbus' ships. Simply not true unless they were blind. If this represents your best thinking hershey you better step up your meds.
     
    #1685     Nov 25, 2006
  6. Thanks for the advice.

    Probably, I should add a few more examples.

    I won't though except to say that a couple of personal events did cross my mind when you were doing your urban thing.

    I was walking along on the tundra through some Dahl sheep.......

    I was walking along in the cold at night with a young girl around 30th and Diamond when....

    One of the things I like about trading is connecting with others. One aspect of interacting has to do with observing the pleasure a person gets out of finding himself in a new place. I like being in new places and having the delightful experiences myself and people occassionally do comment on the fun it was to be doing it.

    It was fun to read your post.... delightful because I thought of a couple of past personal experiences that were like the guys on the beach...

    the aha.... and the AHA..... and the religious experiences that people have as breakthoughs occur are very memorable for reasons other than just the topic at hand... These are people seeing something they couldn't see before.. they are seeing things that are there and yet they couldn't see them until....

    As I sat through almost 25 two hour sessions at the Vegas TradersExpo, I observed the collections of people that were attracted to this and that. I also looked at them, occassionally in my mind's eye, as people who were traders... traders all over the place......

    It was the first trader thing I ever went to... I went because I was supposed to be finding out about traders. And people who market to traders.

    It was the first time I ever saw traders....... they came in bunches to sit in seats and not take notes. they had big yellow bags of stuff....

    I thought the jokes that were said about the ages of traders were the nuts. The new modern ones who were computer savvy were the most .... anyone over 50 didn't have a chance over them....

    What a neat feeling it was to be there and think about high velocity pool extraction (my paradigm for making money).... really, I could hear the huge sucking sound when it got more comic than usual.

    I can now visualize for real this non new age unfluffed urban conventional orthodox financial foundation being proffered by the session presenters (all with things to sell on small round flat disks with holes in the middle) to their audiences sitting on interlocking chairs (of standard width in rows). SRO for almost everthing.

    I was able to float unseen( I am old over 50 and I carry meds and water in my briefcase) right up to the point of filling in a raffle slip for the Chicago DVD, I honestly though it was a movie DVD so I didn't fill it in. Finally, I realized the crowd was filling in slips passing them to the middle, letting them drop in a big (yellow bag) thing. Chicago was the place of the recording of the 4 day porffessional seminar on an event as long as the expo. I scurried to letter... JACk...scribble Hershey. letter my email address.....

    And just get someone to throw it on top of the pile in the bag at the last moment..... as the bag was taken to the stage...

    A stack of 6 big ones, worth 2,200 bucks and from CHICAGO!!!...

    I had my expo badge in my note book rather than ID'ing myself in case an ET person would be slugging me suddenly......

    I had to face the audience as I walked back down the center aisle after my name was deciphered an announced.....why didn't they mix those things up a little bit more....

    It was fun actually....... I blew my cover and the elegant oriental woman said she liked sitting next to a winner... I made her a winner too (I gave her a CD of "putting the pieces together"...lol)

    So now I have to consider flying here or there and doing stuff with people who have local meetings, etc...

    This is humor and it is neat to have your cover blown and not get beat up by ET'ers and see people(chat with them) in the rest of the meetings and chat about aha's and AHA's and stuff.

    It let me get nerve up to tour the exhibitions. So I connected with the platform folks to deal with getting the pool extraction stuff (paradigm) on their platforms and I looked at the possibilities of when real time simulated backtesting might become a possibility for platforms and electronic trading operations. Not too many years away now.

    It is important to keep looking at the view. At some point your mind will be ready to see something that you haven't seen before.

    Seeing an old geezer's post and making him wrong and telling him to up his meds is very funny. I'm assuming your handle is showing you have six eyes (eyebrows anyway) and you keep most of them shut most of the time. For me six Gaussians on volume in a row is a good runup of profits (13 trades...ewe...)

    Do you see what I mean??
     
    #1686     Nov 25, 2006
  7. ^^^^^^

    ^^^^^^

    Manic phase kicking in eh ?
     
    #1687     Nov 25, 2006

  8. "Does this trading vendors industry require any pre-requisite of minimum IQ to be qualified for offering services? "

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1303347#post1303347
     
    #1688     Dec 22, 2006
  9. For any trading day or any instrument (particularly if a stock or a company is delisted) : No trading = No activities = No trend = No anything.

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1303362#post1303362
     
    #1689     Dec 22, 2006
  10. Trend following works fine, thank you...

    In my view it works better than anything else, since 1 fat tail can make your decade...

    The only downside is the high drawdown that you must stomach on the way to high profits...

    I make money on under 50% of my trend trades, and I only make my net profits on around 1 in 10 of my trend trades...

    Trend following is not the kind of strategy for those seeking immediate gratification...
     
    #1690     Dec 22, 2006
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