speaking of ES, here's a bit on crankdot.com regarding his "radial momentum" theory-- he won the cranky prize, which is the lesser of the crankier and crankiest prizes ! in this contest, less is better...... http://www.crank.net/antigravity.html enjoy, surfer
Hmm. It seems that even Shakespeare was something of a trend follower: "There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows, and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat; And we must take the current when it serves, Or lose our ventures." Brutus. Julius Caesar Act IV Scene 3: Within the Tent of Brutus.
If Surfer reads this he'll say Shakespeare didn't exist either . . . or Brutus . . . or Julius Caesar . . . or Rome . . . or for that matter anything that happened previous to yesterday.
The question is, does marketsurfer actually exist? I'd say that the supporting evidence is tenuous, at best.
cute! i am sure you are expecting a pithy reply to the above, sorry to disappoint. shakespeare, brutus, et al no longer exist, and the same can be said for trends after one enters the trade. they exist purely in the past, and have ZERO relevance on the future. just like shakespeare will never write additional prose, 6 or 60 moves in one direction does not foretell the next move. as one of my favorite post modern philosophers, joe strummer, so aptly stated---"the future is unwritten, so know your rights" trend following is a <i> feel good religion.</i> hence the popularity of the trend following book--- ( not to take away from the author's writing skills, which are considerable)---however the premise is fatally flawed, relying on anecdotal, survivorship biased data. it feels great to buy in the present direction of the market. unfortunately, successful trades do not feel good when entered, in fact, they often seem anti- intuitive and troubling prior to entry. market trends only exist in the past, if it could be shown that any series of moves in a particular direction would foretell a move in the similar direction, we would have exploited this long ago. friends and associates of mine constantly test wide ranges of markets trying to find edges, never has an edge been discovered in what is generally refereed to as "trend following". regards, surf
yes exactly - or in other words: anything can happen in any market at any time. but still - some refuse to accept this simple reality.
If anyone is interested in keeping this thread located in the TA board, please post technical analysis. In fact, since its title is "Trend Following Delusion Shattered," please post data and analysis that will shatter my delusion. Thanks!
You need to associate with a more industrious and intelligent group of friends. Positive reinforcement leads to positive outcomes. Didn't your parents tell you that "can't" doesn't belong in anyones vocabulary?