trend following delusion shattered

Discussion in 'Trading' started by hank rollins, Mar 15, 2005.

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  1. opw

    opw

    Still not answered:

    What are those flaws?
    Is research ever unbiased?

    :confused:
     
    #1301     Apr 19, 2006
  2. Seems to me that Market Surfer does not really have a reply for you. Perhaps because he has no background to call on. In order to comment intelligently about the question he would have had to have taken a methodology class (usually given in grad school).

    Also he would have had to have learned to use a standardized statistical package (SAS, SPSS, SYSTAT, MINITAB, etc)

    Finally, a research program always incorporates some type of ethics study to round out the year.

    Its much easier to just dismiss the study, declare it invalid, then hope that no one in the crowd took the training. Not a good bet.

    Truth of the matter is that very few studies can be said to be without some flaw. That is why peer groups often review studies before publishing them.

    What does matter (in my opinion) is whether their is something of value to be learned from the comments and conclusions. In my view there are some interesting ideas in that paper that could serve as a basis for further research and perhaps lead to someone finding a nice edge to trade. Of course if you never get down "off your horse", you probably won't find it.

    Steve
     
    #1302     Apr 19, 2006
  3. man

    man


    steve

    which of the paper do you mean?

    peace
     
    #1303     Apr 19, 2006
  4. opw

    opw

    #1304     Apr 19, 2006
  5. man

    man

    okay. i remmeber i read it some weeks ago ... i had the feeling that the amount of data they were talking about could not by any means by survivor adjusted .. what do you think?
     
    #1305     Apr 19, 2006
  6. If it came from anyone but Covell it would have a chance. Shame really.
     
    #1306     Apr 19, 2006
  7. man

    man


    so the author suffers from bad reputation? why is that? i have not heard about him ...
     
    #1307     Apr 19, 2006
  8. gbos

    gbos

    What does Covell has to do with the study? :confused:

    The study looks ok.
     
    #1308     Apr 19, 2006
  9. man

    man

    do i recall correctly that the study was long-only ...

    (i should reread it :), spending more time guessing around ...)
     
    #1309     Apr 19, 2006
  10. Very true. However only very few know how to find reversals , mainly because it involves accurate forecasting .
     
    #1310     Apr 19, 2006
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