Interesting that you would be fishing for what others have to say without being at all forthcoming about yourself. Rather one-sided. Nothing quite like operating from a position of "strength," is there? That way you can crap on other people's lawns without having to explain, let alone defend, your own. You must be a sparkling conversationalist.
I guess that's my point -- the term "reliably" can never be concretely defined, nor can any method prove itself to be anything beyond "temporarily" successful. We can go back and forth on whether or not certain techniques are reliable enough, but isn't it a moot point? Say you don't believe in the viability of any publically available methods, but if the market conditions happen to favor blindly riding trends or plain buy-and-hold strategies, who's to say (or care) whether they are reliable or not? Those methods were reliable enough to make fortunes during 96-00, and conversely many fortunes were lost betting against the "public" for that period of time. Shine that critcal light on your own claim that one could have made millions shorting stocks that publicly available techniques overinflated in 2000 -- wouldn't that trader have blown out some time during 98-99 if he really applied that method in his trading? Wouldn't it have taken a at least a bit of persistence and timing? What I'm wondering is this: what's the difference between that clever trader timing his shorts against overinflated stocks during a bubble, and the trend trader repeatedly trying to ride a big move and finally catching a good ride? I would argue none at all.
Nickel's comment that "big money could have been made shorting stocks overvalued by publicly available techniques in 2000" is the only thing close to a methodology that I've seen him posit in this thread, and it makes me wonder if he was actually trading before 2000 if he really believes in that statement.
he is just trying to explain reality. how he trades is irrelevant to this conversation. ____________________________________________________ <i>open up the border to the rivers running green, 'cause i've got traunches full of dollars to trade for gasoline.........</i>
This thread hasn't been about methods used by specific persons, and it would be yet another distraction to go off on that sort of tangent.
NickelScalper: When you say trend trading doesn't work, and others (like me) say it does work, I think everybody's right and everybody's wrong. Why? Because we're never talking about the same time frame and/or the same security and/or the same time period. It's unquestionable and irrefutable that trend trading does work with some securities in some time frames (see gif files I posted earlier in this thread), and it is unquestionable and irrefutable that trend trading does not work in other securities and/or other time frames. Also, for the same security and the same time frame (i.e., 5min, 60min, daily, etc.) sometimes trend trading works and sometimes it doesn't. It depends on the time period also. For example, last year, from 2/04 to 8/04, trend trading in many securities and many timeframes was very difficult. Then in late August, trending resumed. It continued until January 2005. The trick of course is to know when to trend trade and when to scalp nickels. I've tried a lot of different ways over the years to get an edge. I daytraded for a while and I swingtraded for a while. I even paid thousands of dollars for a personal trading coach to teach me Elliott Wave techniques on multiple timeframes. I even developed a sophisticated excel spreadsheet to keep track of trades and risk, and put it on a user interactive website (MyRiskReward.com) using a T1 line. I ended up going to a daily timeframe, trendtrading seven figures with ETFs and managed funds with filtered moving average crossovers. The moving average crossovers are filtered with stochastics and macd, and what thes do is remove much of the whipsawing of the moving averages when the securities are not trending. So, probably 90% of the money I make is during the 20-30% of the time my selected securities are trending. Works for me.
PickleScalper, you are so full of shit that your eyes must truly be brown. I mentioned early on in this thread that I do not rely on a predefined trend in order to enter the market. However, a trend, if in place, serendipitously takes it to greater profit than otherwise. People have offered their reasons for their belief in, and reliance on, trends. Admittedly, some explanations were better than others. You merely shit upon all of them while offering nothing of yours as a counter argument for comparative purposes. While a critical assessment has value, a single-minded mission to disparage leaves a bad taste. You offer nothing but condescending disdain. You are merely a disingenuous little pseudo intellectual with a pickle up your ass. I suggest that you disengage it.