Bully for you. I prefer to approach trading as a business rather than a game of chance, but that's just me.
nickel, just wanted to clarify your statement about having to predict price to make money. you mean in "directional trading" only , correct ? hank
Just a matter of semantics, isn't it? Who buys without believing price will go up and to a certain minimum extent, for whatever reason it may be? It's just a matter of how far down the predatory chain a method is that determines the extent of profit (and loss). The bigger fish will always laugh at the smaller fish and claim luck is the only thing keeping the smaller fish alive; unless you are the biggest fish in the pond, I'd hesitate before declaring the impotency of another's methods. Surprise -- there are traders out there who actually scoff at those using some computer model to anticipate price movment across any market without caring about anything else, as if oil and soybeans and treasuries were the same. How do you compare to someone who actually trades knowing the real sources of immediate supply and demand and has contacts with all the biggest players in the market? If you feel proud to have just taken out a swing-high for a hundred pips in the euro using some computer-generated system that gave you a "statistically better than random entry", what do you say to the head of the trading desk at a large institution who sneers at your slightly favorable coin flip and claims YOU are the fish that guesses which way the current flows next? How the hell do you trade the euro without having your pulse on the interbank market where the real volume is, or without high-priced brokers slipping you tips at the levels where other players have entered or will exit? Is this rationale going to stop you from profiting from your own home-grown method? I hope not. If you're here to actually offer something a "smaller fish" could learn from, then by all means don't be shy with your wisdom and show those confused trend-followers what they are missing out on. But if you're just here to pontificate from up high and claim the futility of the methods of others, know that there's always someone at another level who's wishing you "good luck" too.
Point of clarification: The need to predetermine that price will move both in the right direction and to a certain minimum extent before entering a trade applies to "directional trading" in a general sense, as opposed to arbitrage. In the case of "volatility trading," the price under consideration would be that of the traded instrument, not the underlying, so it would still count as "directional trading" for this purpose.
It's not about "believing" price will go your way, but reliably calculating it. I'm not here to teach, though I hope to make a worthwhile contribution on occasion. What brought me to ET was discussion on trading. If you think my line is out of left field, then surprise me by answering the following question with some teaching of your own. How can a method add value without anticipating whether price will move both in the right direction and to a certain minimum extent after the trader has committed to a prospective entry?
Q What we need is more people who specialize in the impossible. - Theodore Roethke UQ Q Don't quit before the miracle happens! UQ Q Whether you think you can or you can't, you're right. UQ Q Give yourself permission to change your mind. UQ --- Handbook to a Happier Life (by Jim Donavan)