Your answer was a bit diffuse. The question is quite simple. Do you claim a system that gives winning signals despite its inability to anticipate whether price will move both in the right direction and to a certain minimum extent after the trader has committed to a prospective entry?
i would change mr. mamis's qoute to read: "ta is attacked for what people are led to believe it can do" thank you for the cogent answers, however, i have a question. how is the probability for a trade entry determined? hank
Yes Absolutely 100% in the affirmative And it is not a "claim". It is how traders and also poker players make money (and how casinos make money in slots, craps, etc.).
yes, i understand what you are saying--however the probabilities in the casino and poker are far different than the probability of a trade being profitable after an entry. is there a quantifiable method of clearly and specifically determining probabilities of trade entry success or lack thereof ? thanks
Yes sir. The cards never change but the market does. However the method is very simple: # of times the good thing happened after the precondition / the total number of times the precondition happened. I am also a big fan of "Max Gain vs. Pain Required to Reach Max Gain" scatterplots as a quantitative measure of the effectiveness of an entry. I have attached one of them from my own stuff.
So, in other words, you trade according to a system the signals of which are not associated with whether price will move both in the right direction and to a certain minimum extent after the trader has committed to a prospective entry. Good luck. You're going to need it.
Yes Absolutely 100% in the affirmative With my explanation and scatter plot you can see why. Or you can handwave it away as many do. Makes no difference to me...
Indeed, as do the casinos. The point is I make more money with my good luck than I lose with my bad luck.