No Thunderdog, this is not what I am saying. I only noticed that a lot of the terminology is borrowed from signal theory and is often applied in an absolutely nonsensical manner. Random? I indicated in simple terms how this is defined in signal theory. You tell me how you define random for the ES or DAX. That's the problem. If you can't, it is wiser not to talk too much about it. After you did, we will be ready to tackle 'The Trend'.
That's your own definition. Mathematically you can even define something like a 'random sine wave' which is wholly non-deterministic, ie random. Colored noise, wholly undeterministic is random. Knowing a random signal by its statistical parameters doesn't make it less random. However, suitable 'random' signals can be predicted using suitable methods, prediction in the sense of well defined mathematical criteria. This does not make such a signal 'less random'.
to simplify things, isn't this the concept behind channeling stocks.com and proflogics ideas? old worn out, non testable concepts of little relevance to the modern trader.
Whoa. We seem to be at cross purposes here. My post was to hanksurfer, who drew a false conclusion based on your post. I happen to like many of your posts, what little I understand of them once you go technical. Really. You will not see me using terminology that is over my head. Please go back and confirm this. Further, I do not really need to tackle "The Trend" for reasons I mentioned in my post way back on page 53 of this thread: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=46620&perpage=6&pagenumber=53
As is common practice, you say it's only my opinion but offer no valid counterexample. If a random series is to some extent predictable based on its know parameters, then it's these determinable aspects that are the basis of the prediction, not the random ones.
Oh, you're looking for the "old worn out, non testable concepts of little relevance." Back of the store, middle shelf. By the used eyeglasses.
This is no matter of opinion or frivolous 'counterexamples'. If you didn't like what I wrote, read further for yourself: 'Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic Processes', Papoulis, McGrawHill Or better, write your own.