Trend Following--Another Nail In The Coffin

Discussion in 'Trading' started by marketsurfer, Jan 26, 2007.


  1. ok, thanks for the clarification.

    therefore you can prove that the odds are greater than 50/50 that the next move will be in the same direction after your bull/bear trend indicators appear BUT prior to the next move actually being profitable??

    I challenge you to offer any statistical proof of this claims.

    undefined, creative type language is not acceptable.

    regards surf
     
    #11     Jan 26, 2007
  2. Maverick1

    Maverick1

    Surf, do you know how Matador ended 06'?

    Would appreciate the intelligence,
    Thx
    Maverick1
     
    #12     Jan 26, 2007
  3. #13     Jan 26, 2007
  4. Well over 50/50.

    No statistical proof. Stats can be fudged as any good math person is aware. I offer real time proof but you won't sit still for that. Something to do with your comfort zone I believe.
     
    #14     Jan 26, 2007

  5. well, i consider this a failure to back up your claims. If its as well defined as you state, there will be no problem with testing across a significant number of vehicles/times. nothing to do with fudging numbers.

    yes, you are correct--- i don't consider seeing a magician perform tricks as empirical proof of magic.

    regards surf
     
    #15     Jan 26, 2007
  6. LMAO ... No! Surfer is the wanker ... and you're correct, you're right :)

    But we have to give Surfer points for being such a persistent wanker.
     
    #16     Jan 26, 2007
  7. What if there is an 80% chance buying the new high will net you 1 tick, but 20% that selling it will net you 5?

    How does a statistical trend (what you call proof) differ from a price trend, in that it 'works' until it doesn't?
     
    #17     Jan 26, 2007

  8. :D :D
     
    #18     Jan 26, 2007

  9. it differs over a number of trades ( entries ) rather for each individual one.

    regards, surf
     
    #19     Jan 26, 2007
  10. Curtis Faith, one of the original turtles, made it clear in the "Turtle methodology" thread [http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...perpage=5&highlight=faith turtle&pagenumber=2] (a thread you responded in) that Mike Covell's site, the one you linked was worthless.

    Misdirection?

    Trading break outs is just one of the old trend following techniques the Turtles used. Just as doctors used to do "blood letting", techniques have progressed into the 21st century. Trading break outs is not anything a current trader that trades with the trend would ever do.
     
    #20     Jan 26, 2007