Trend Following--Another Nail In The Coffin

Discussion in 'Trading' started by marketsurfer, Jan 26, 2007.

  1. buylo

    buylo

    Agreed. Put your money where your mouth is. I enjoy trading with fundamental trends and have been able to live very comfortably doing so.
     
    #101     Feb 1, 2007
  2. #102     Jul 11, 2007
  3. achilles28

    achilles28

    Marketsurfer,

    Whats a good month for you - percent return?
     
    #103     Jul 11, 2007
  4. storm clouds are looming above and u hear thunder. it begins to rain. it will continue to rain until it isn't raining anymore.

     
    #104     Jul 11, 2007

  5. whoa, thats from left field.

    i consider anything over 2% a good month.

    surf
     
    #105     Jul 11, 2007
  6. are you a seykota tribe member, lights??

    thanks,

    surf
     
    #106     Jul 11, 2007
  7. i've attended a few meetings. scared the sh*t out of me.

     
    #107     Jul 11, 2007
  8. Wannabe Sage. America is full of those "sage types".

    All he needs is a bestseller. The trading tribe apparently only sold 1000 copies.
     
    #108     Jul 11, 2007
  9. Food for thought: I ran some stats on
    S&P 500 going back to 1950.


    Likelihood of price remaining above 200dma at least 200 days is about once every 2.7 yrs. Same likelihood for price below 200dma at least 200days is once every 11 years.

    That pretty much says that sustainable trends do exist relative to some metric
    (in this case 200dma). And that biases exist as well. Pick any year to go long on the basic mechanical ma crossover and you have about a 1 in 3 chance of riding
    it for close to a year (10 months). Try going short on that signal and your chance has diminished radically.

    Strip away the Rorschach visual trend definitions, and underneath there are underlying objective statistics that can be utilized. Unfortunately, far too few books cover this type of approach.
    The deluge of TA books are pretty much subjective and worthless.
     
    #109     Jul 11, 2007
  10. #110     Jul 11, 2007