Only in the theoretical world do markets move in discrete increments -- you must at the least be able to account for asymmetrical payoffs when dealing with a topic such as "trend trading". Your claim is the equivalent of saying "buying options doesn't work" because 90% of options expire worthless.
discrete increments? you must be talking about charts. proflogic puts the places the market in a non-varying environment as do most other TA traders---you need to speak to them. the option argument makes no sense. regards, surf
Sure, I make bad trades. All of us, excepting proflogic, make bad trades. I don't live in the world of would of, should of, could of by looking at "chart trends" after the fact. You're buying lunch!
Sure, VN has done extensive studies in this regard. However, you need to ask him yourself for specifics. Here's his site, email contact info is listed: www.dailyspeculations.com regards, surf
I get into trades early or late like many traders. Part of being human. I do not make "Bad" trades though. I do not randomly sell tops and buy bottoms as you do. I do not trade against the strength or direction of the market as you do because you have no clue where the strength is or where price is going when you execute a trade. You place a trade and hope. And you most definitely live in a "would of, could of . . . should of world because your trading journal reflects it. And maybe someday you can buy your own lunch.
It was just the nearest equivalent off the top of my mind for a blanket claim based on "statistics" which barely holds any logic in the real world, let alone corresponds with how actual traders think or manage their trades. If you are seriously (???) going to use any study that defines a trend as a market that goes up X number of days consecutively, then yes, the options analogy just about fits.
I didn't hound you or post the chart of MFW to prove that you make "bad" trades. I, like Proflogic, believe that there are no 'bad' trades except those that are done outside of your trading rules. However, the reason I keep bringing up the MFW trade is because despite the fact that you make numerous posts per day(probably more than anyone), you avoided your MFW short thread http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=83138&highlight=mfw like crazy. The reason I think you avoided posting on it is because you were waiting and/or hoping that eventually MFW would get in the money for you. Then you would post and say, "Hah! See, I'm right!". But MFW never did come back, so finally you gave in. Although you never mentioned where or if you got stopped out. And this is why I think so many ET members give you a lot of shit. It seems like what matters to you most is being part of Juntos and white tie dinners. Being in "exclusive" clubs. You seem more interested in being right and proving "ordinary traders" wrong. And in my opinion, good traders don't care about being right all the time. They care about sticking to their trading plan and making themselves better traders. I play golf with a group of guys during the season. We have one guy that plays and he is always shaving(cheating) strokes off his game. We don't play for money. But he's always sure to point out his "low" score. The rest of us actually try to guess how many points he'll shave off a particular hole. It's pretty funny. I for one, unless we're playing for a $ or a tourney, only care about one score. My own. Are you a point shaver, surf?
wow, the true believers are out for blood. anyone who has read the surf report over the last several years will see that i clearly include my losses. there is no cover up here. So, I missed listing a loser in MFW and misspoke concerning the eur/usd once--big deal. I will soon be moving my musings to a personal blog space--- those interested can join me there, if not, best wishes! surf