WARNING: Never post any opinion that can be proved wrong by an as yet unknown outcome. It's dangerous to reputations, subscription flow, and small animals. And now back to our regularly scheduled prognostications. Day was a little hard to fathom.
Trend days occur after a large gap Large gaps have a tendency to not be filled on the day they occur Therefore, if the gap will not be filled because it is a large gap and the day of the gap will be a trend day, then it will be a trend day in the direction of the gap, which is up. There are certainly no guarantees in life or the market, so the opinion stated may be wrong. So, if you show up ready, would the strategy for the day be to buy every dip or just go long at open until stopped out? pretzel
Just read this.. It's obvious the call was for an UP trend day, which was not the right call. Not like it really matters but thats my impression of it.
We had a trend day. I never said it woud be up or down. When we traded under 1076, it setup for a short with a MOC exit. Along the way we also had a number of 1 minute bear flags that provided good entries. Also, it was said before the fact. It's not like I came on here afterward and said roh rah rah. The opportunity is there if you follow a breakout system. I did expect it would be a trend day up. The first three trades I took today all expressed that and I lost. However, those were trades I took with out a geniune setup according to any system. Once the system came in I recouped all of the mornings losses and then some. Brandon
It was'nt proven wrong. It was a simple observation that we would likely get a trend day, which we did. A trend day up would occur when the market opens at or near its lows and closes at or near its high. A trend day down occurs when the market opens at or near its highs, and closes at or near its lows. It would seem to me that we had a trend day down today. Brandon
Good trading. Dow had too much overhead. See my post this morning. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=234046#post234046 When it couldn't break that, in came the sellers. gave me a nice run up in treasuries. Good luck.
I have researched all of the gaps in the market going back several years. I shared a ton of the statistics and research from it here on ET (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=8127). We had the volatility coil and the large gap up, both of these led me to believe we would have a trend day up. When the market opened I expressed this opinion by going long and was stopped out. By noon I was down a little over two percent trading. At this point a lot of people left for the day, volume was light and the trend day call was "wrong". However, we had not had a setup yet using the volatility system. This did not occur until we broke under 1081 ( I was late and did not get in till 1076). This trade then calls for an exit Market On Close. Along the way, there was a number of nice continuation pattenrns for scalps as well. Brandon
The call was based on statistics. Although the statistic is > 50%, it is not 100%. So, nothing wrong with being "wrong". I think the next time there is a large gap, the same call will be made? How much was your stop loss for this kind of play? (The point where you will be proven "wrong" and just take the loss). pretzel
The cycle will probably go on. Generally after a trend day the crowd can't wait to trade the next day because they are certain there will be continuation. The market usually goes back to the chop they been trying to avoid (and thus missed the trend day). Tomorrow the most likely course of action will be a scalp type day. Herky jerky type of movesm, while the crowd will try to approach it as a trend day. Brandon