Trend concept is now history.

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by MarkBrown, Mar 30, 2021.

  1. MarkBrown

    MarkBrown

    [​IMG]

    hate to break it to you all but there is no trend other than a notion in your mind of past events. there are only pulses, and you're in tune with that pulse or not. cyclical reoccurring pulses are all there is to trading the markets. granted there will always be some anomalies in the vast sea of waves, but those are only distractions.

    how to find your pulse, first think of market data being analog and to make better sense of it you need to digitize it. filtering out eye catching distractions commonly called trend, spikes and other such non-sense. getting to core pulse is what you should pursue not shiny objects. risk not want not, encapsulating a trade with stringent what if routines will always perform better than fixed stops.

    so what we have is a pulsating market, live and dynamic and if appears to trend, it's in fact just pulsating a little lop sided. anyway by the time you identify these so called trends they will have long passed. investing is a dead sport, to survive today you have to trade and not be committed to anything for any length of time. in fact the longer you are in the market to more in peril your assets are in. m
     
    dholliday, yc47ib, MACD and 5 others like this.
  2. ph1l

    ph1l

    Like this?
    upload_2021-3-30_20-42-55.png

    upload_2021-3-30_20-44-15.png
     
    dholliday, .sigma and MarkBrown like this.
  3. All I can say is, stay in the rhythm of the pulses. If you are not synchronized, stops will trigger relentlessly. FWIW, my last 3 system enhancements have all been "synchronization" checks and signals.
     
    MACD and .sigma like this.
  4. RedDuke

    RedDuke

    Sure buddy. How about SPX over last 12 years, and few little names like Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Netflix and etc????

    just because you can not identify a trend, does not mean it does not exist.
     
  5. Right?!
    Yeah Im thinking he needs to get some sleep and take a step back.
     
    Frederick Foresight likes this.
  6. maxinger

    maxinger

    Trend concept is valid since history.


    There are many types of trend

    - continuation trend
    - reversal trend
    - Swing up & down and up & down ... market (in the big band)
    - sleepy market (price moving in a small band)
    - Chaotic, jerky, erratic, messy, indecisive, mad, untrendy trend
     
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  7. virtusa

    virtusa

    Exactly. The error people make is that if they cannot see the trend anymore, they conclude trend does not exist anymore.

    If trend are history, one should not forget that history repeats itself, over and over again.

    There is always a trend, if it is not in the hourly, it can be in the daily, weekly, monthly, yearly...
     
  8. Peter8519

    Peter8519

    Take any simple moving average and scan for the number of days that a stock stay above the moving average. Plot the number of observation in days. This distribution curve can be fitted with C/(x^1.5) curve. You can see the half-life is very short.

    If nothing happen, we do see nice trend.
    We often see nice trend like this one.
    INTT.jpg

    Suddenly something happened like this one.
    DISCA.jpg

    A trend is just a result of an action by the BIG market participant.... I think.
     
    longandshort likes this.
  9. taowave

    taowave

    When you can't make money trading,you write a book.

    Looking foward to "Pulse Trading"
     
  10. %%
    I see your points+ sideway=slop=chop trend.
    I like a good uptrend + sometimes a countertrend.
    Actually with good trend analysis/ time+ trend is your friend/depending. Every market is different\some pay up for silver quarters\some dont.
    Some pay up for .300 WIN magnum/ 7mmReminngton Magnum / .30-06; + some dont...............................................................................................................
     
    #10     Mar 31, 2021