Treasury Yield Curve Steepens to Record as Debt Sales Surge

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by ipatent, May 27, 2009.

  1. ipatent


  2. ipatent


  3. pspr


    The government has really gotten themselves painted into a corner. Unless Bernake and Geitner can come up with a miracle parts of the economy will spiral down further. I don't think we have bright enough brains in Washington to get us out of this mess without a lot more bloodshed.
  4. Steep Yield Curve?

    Markets and commodities and Real Esates and Bond Yields...everything straight the fuxx up.

    EDIT: even the USD.

    I've seen this movie.
  5. Eight


    What if they gave a recovery and nobody came?

    We may have seen the last of Jobless Recoveries.
  6. Arnie


    My God, It's a fucking miracle!!!

    That this thread wasn't started by BLSH!!!:D :D
  7. I think Denninger has it right. He's a mite theatrical about it, and I don't believe the "collapse of everything" is as near as he thinks, but principally he is correct (in my opinion). QE is a not even a band-aid. Trying to think of a suitable analogy here... it's more like a bastardized short term fix of a failing earthen dam, without draining the water behind it. All it does is allow more water to accumulate, which will eventually wipe out everything "down-stream" once it inevitably lets go.

    So what to do? Selling long bonds and having the balls to hold through additional Fed attempts is one obvious bet. You don't even need to worry about timing your entry. It's RIGHT NOW. However guessing the timing of the payout is much harder, since we don't know how hard or long the fed will toil to continue distorting reality. You might have your $ tied up for a while (or not, you never know).

    In my IRA I am long Energy and Food equities. I've bought an Energy ETF, and some individual food & fertilizer companies. If only the companies can survive the impending short term dislocation in the credit market, I think it'll make a decent hedge against the dollar going to shit (using the term "hedge" in an extremely un-sexy, non-sophisticated manner here).

    The one thing that is throwing me for a loop is the relative strength of the dollar right now. Having interest rates go up should attract even more capital, further driving the dollar up against other currencies. I just haven't quite figured out what the deal is here, or what will drive the tipping point to a sharply declining dollar.

    I guess that’s why I’ve looked to commodities. I’m not sure if the time for that has passed. Oil above 60 bucks can only be driven by lots of spec money and inflation-hedgers. I think I read that USO controls a third or more of all prompt-month NYMEX. Food and Fertilizer companies need to be able to be able to withstand the impending shock, so that’s a little bit of a gamble, but whatever. No pain, no gain.

    Some people are saying that f/x traders will come out ahead, but I’m not smart enough to get the timing right, or to understand what currency is not exposed to a dollar death-spiral. Well, Krugerrands and Eagles maybe, but the entry there has obviously passed (when I say “obviously” I am usually wrong, LOL)
  8. How about the goldminers.

    They offer some great leverage and if you are worried about a single company surviving just take a sector tracker.
  9. Can they print money without selling treasuries?

    Why not just print money but not tell anyone, like 2 trillion dollars and over time have them go out on the street.
  10. I bought 2000 shares TBT late december, I do sell out of the money calls on it though.

    I think TBT will be 80-100 dollars a share eventually.

    Just a guess.
    #10     May 28, 2009