Treasury Market Preview

Discussion in 'Trading' started by TradeTheNews, Mar 9, 2007.

  1. TradeTheNews

    TradeTheNews ET Sponsor

    Treasury Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

    - On the U.S. calendar today at 8:30 a.m. are the releases of Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hours, the Unemployment Rate, Average Weekly Hours and Manufacturing Payrolls for Feb. We also have the Jan. Trade Balance. At 10:00 a.m. Wholesale Inventories for Jan. are due out. In Fed-speak, Bies speaks on risk management at 12:30 p.m. Kohn speaks at 1:30 p.m. at an inflation conference. Kroszer and Stern speak at the same inflation conference at 3:30 p.m.
    - Regarding the payrolls data, analysts say that weather may be an important consideration today, as the swing from relatively mild weather in early Jan. to severe winter storms in Feb. is likely to hit employment in several categories, including construction, manufacturing, retail, temporary employment and restaurants and hotels. The weather impact on Non-Farm payrolls could be between 50K to 75K.
    - Concerning the subprime sector, New Century Financial, whose shares fell 25% yesterday, said after the close that it stopped accepting loan applications from prospective borrowers and that it was negotiating with creditors. Additionally, the company said that it has received $150M in margin calls from warehouse lenders and that it has satisfied a little more than half of those calls. The Financial Times points out in an article today that Morgan Stanley, UBS, Bank of America and Barclays have all provided credit facilities to New Century between $1.0B and $1.5B.
    - WSJ reported today that China's Finance Minister, Jin, confirmed a plan to overhaul the management of the country's $1.07 trillion in FX reserves. The reserves will be split into two parts managed in different styles with the goal of achieving greater profits and benefits with the prerequisite of maintaing safety.
    - In European economic news, Industrial Production in the U.K. rose less than expected in Jan. by 0.1%. In France, industrial production dropped unexpectedly by 0.3% in Jan. Elsewhere, ECB's Weber said earlier today that the ECB is ready to act at any time on price risks. Echoing Trichet's comments from yesterday, Weber said that monetary policy remains on the accommodative side and that growth in the Euro-zone is to become firmer and more broad based, while inflation is to be around 2.0% in 2007 and 2008. Lastly, a major wire pointed out today that the risk of owning European corporate bonds rose today. Contracts based on 10 million euros of debt included in the iTraxx Crossover Index of 45 companies increased 8,000 euros to 209,000 euros. Yesterday, the index fell 19,000 euros, the most on record.
    - At 8:10 a.m. the 30Y future is down 3 ticks at 113 7/32, 10Y future is off 2 ticks at 108 27/32 and the 2Y future is lower by 1 tick at 102 17/32.