Treasury Market Preview

Discussion in 'Trading' started by TradeTheNews, Feb 28, 2007.

  1. TradeTheNews

    TradeTheNews ET Sponsor

    Treasury Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

    - On the U.S. calendar today at 8:30 a.m. are the releases of GDP, Personal Consumption, the GDP Price Index and Core PCE, all for Q4. At 9:45 a.m. we have the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for Feb. And at 10:00 a.m. New Home Sales for Jan will be released. In Fed speak, Geithner speaks on the financial system at 8:50 a.m. Bernanke testifies on long-term fiscal challenges at 10:00 a.m. At 10:30 a.m. Kohn will speaking about the effect of the aging workforce on the economy. In pre-market releases, MBA mortgage applications rose 3.2% last week after falling 5.2% in the previous week.
    - WSJ Fed Watcher, Greg IP, wrote this morning that despite yesterday's financial market turmoil, there is little sign the prognosis for the U.S. economy has changed much. Strong readings on home sales in Jan. and consumer confidence in Feb. suggested that the U.S. economy may be growing at about a 2.0% annual rate.
    - Pimco's Gross has put out his outlook for March. He reiterates that the Fed will cut rates later this year and that the two key criteria will be employment and asset prices. He says that with construction laborers about to hit the unemployment lines and the unemployment rate in jeopardy of rising more than the Fed feels comfortable with, an ease as soon as mid-year may be in the cards. Additionally, he wrote that his firm sees yields 12 months from now significantly lower, at least on the front end of the yield curve.
    - In European economic news, the German ILO Unemployment Rate fell more than expected to 7.4%. in Jan. from 7.6% in Dec. The unemployment change in Feb fell 79K versus expectations of -40K, while the unemployment rate fell to 9.2% from 9.5%. In the U.K., nationwide house prices rose 0.7% in Feb, above expectations of 0.5%. YoY house prices were up 10.2% in the month. GFK Consumer Confidence in the U.K. fell as expected to -8 in Feb from -7 in Jan. In Switzerland, the KOF Leading Indicator rose unexpectedly to 1.79 in Feb from 1.74 in Jan. In the Euro-zone, the unemployment rate fell to 7.4% in Jan. as expected from 7.5% in Dec. CPI in the region fell 0.5% in Jan., matching expectations. Finally, ECB's Weber said the he expects growth in the Euro-zone in 2007 between 1.75% and 2.0%. He sees growth above 2.0% in 2008. Lastly, he reiterated that the recovery in the EU is solid and no longer needs monetary support.
    - In Asia, China's Shanghai Composite Index recovered today, rising nearly 4.0% but Japan's Nikkei 225 Index fell 2.8%. BOJ's Mizuno said that the central bank will raise rates gradually, echoing comments by BOJ governor, Fukui, earlier. He also said the BOJ will keep interest rates low regardless of economic conditions.
    - At 8:10 a.m. the 30Y future is down 12 ticks at 113 1/32, the 10Y is down 7 ticks at 108 17/32 and the 2Y future is down 2 ticks at 102 8/32.