Treasury Market Preview

Discussion in 'Trading' started by TradeTheNews, Feb 26, 2007.

  1. TradeTheNews

    TradeTheNews ET Sponsor

    Treasury Market Preview by Trade the News Staff

    - No releases are on the U.S. calendar today. Tomorrow we have Durable Goods Orders for Jan., Consumer Confidence for Feb and Existing Home Sales for Jan. On Wednesday, Q4 GDP and Core PCE is due out as well as Chicago PMI for Feb. and New Home Sales for Jan. On Thursday, Personal Income and Spending, the PCE Core and Deflator, Construction Spending, all for Jan. will be released. The ISM Manufacturing Index for Feb. is also due out on Thursday. On Friday we have the University of Michigan Confidence Index for February.
    - U.K.'s Guardian newspaper reported this morning that U.S. President Bush has given the Pentagon the task of devising an expanded bombing plan for Iran that can be carried out in 24 hours notice. The news follows comments by Iran's President on Sunday that his country's nuclear program is irreversible. The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany meet today in London to discuss a possible new set of sanctions against Iran.
    - WSJ Fed Watcher, Greg Ip, wrote this morning that Fed officials have rethought the notion that when unemployment falls too low, inflation goes up. He says that Fed officials are far more likely to blame temporary factors now, such as changes in oil prices or rents, than a change in the jobless rate. However, with unemployment at 4.6% or below the Fed's view of its natural rate, inflation may edge up after the temporary impacts of energy and rent subside, requiring the Fed to raise interest rates enough to push unemployment up sharply and bring inflation down.
    - Former Fed Chairman, Greenspan, said to a business conference that there are signs that the current economic cycle is coming to an end, including the stabilization of U.S. profit margins. He said that it's possible that the U.S. can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, though noted that most forecasters are not making that judgement but are looking for some slowdown into 2008. Greenspan reiterated that so far there have not been any major spillover effects from the contraction in housing.
    - In European economic news, GFK Consumer Confidence in Germany fell to a 14 month low in March to 4.4 from 4.9 in Feb. The yield on the German bund fell below 4.0% on the news for the first time since Jan. Also in Germany, the German Banker's Association increased it 2007 GDP forecast to 2.0% from its previous forecast range of between 1.25% and 1.5%. In the United Kingdom, the Hometrack Housing survey revealed that house prices rose 0.7% in Feb, the largest gain since May 2004. Bank of England's Barker said in an interview that the home shortage in London will take a long time to solve.
    - In Asia, Japan's Vice Finance Minister, Fujii, said earlier today that U.S. Treasury Secretary, Paulson, may discuss currencies with Japan's Finance Minister, Omi. H eadded that is no preset agenda for the meeting. Also in Japan, the minutes of the BOJ's Jan policy meeting showed that members voted 6-3 to leave rates unchanged at 0.25%. The minutes showed that BOJ members delayed raising rates because of disagreements about the strength of the economy and inflation
    - At 8:10 a.m. the 30Y future is up 11 ticks at 111 31/32, the 10Y future is higher by 6 ticks at 107 28/32 and the 2Y future is up 2 ticks at 102.