Gold price has re-entered above our lower trend line. It is still hard to say if it was a fake break or not. I went short too late and had to take a lower then price then I had hoped for. My short was at 1639.5 Now I'm more used to catching 10-20 cent moves with really tight stops so this was really hard for me. My stop was at 1648. Price hit 1647 and some change. So I am very nervous. Again I saw bullish movement while in the trade and forced my self not to trade it. Hopefully price has made a high and will retreat. But at this point we are above my trend line which is bullish. My hopes are that we broke the trend line once and therefore we can break it again. Going for bigger gains (and losses) makes me feel like the trade is up to luck. There are bullish moves and bearish moves but I cant act on them !
Stopped out ! bad call or to low of a stop ? we shall see. price seemed bullish ever since i put my short in. Under normal circumstances I would of either closed or reversed my position. But I stayed patient and it costed me. In general though I think I have slightly more winners then losers minus my first day. My stop on the last trade was way too high and dollar wise I'm down. I have no bias at this point. AS it is unclear what side of our line we are at. Please lets get some news to drive this dog of a market!
As countries buy and hang on to their gold, why is it that India taxes gold so as to discourage its purchase. To top it off India buys oil from Iran with gold instead of the US dollar. This is good as we see people dropping the USD as the currency to do business in, but why would India give up their gold ? It would seem that when we look at the 2 above facts together and notice that the time frame is so small one would conclude that India is being very bearish or anti gold.
Twas a bad trade, alot of these recently. Main problem is over trading goal was to trade the big picture after confirmation but instead i have been taking a few trades a day instead of a month. Anyways, The drop below our trend line is looking more and more like a fake break down, we seem to be bouncing up here but no confirmation on the daily charts so still not clear. If we do have a confirmed bounce that would be really good since we have no good news but are bouncing up on a bullish trend line. I should of not placed any trades yet. Maybe one one when we pierced the trend line with a large stop loss that would not have been stopped out . Instead I go in to safe mode and limit my gains.
So far we have had what seems to be a fake break down from our triangle. This was mainly driven by the news. From there today at 1680 we have touched our bullish channel but not yet entered in to it. Rarely we see price go through the triangle and stay between the new forming triangle ( if you extend the triangles lines you make a new triangle after the points intersect. In this new triangle price tends to touch both lines until it decides on a direction. This is where we are today. This is not to be seen as neutral. Since we were on a down trend we were expecting to fall all the down to our multi year year channel. This would of been the place for that to happen but it didn't. We have to be careful. every one wants there to be a short term channel entry here. Any bit of positive news can bring us in a channel where people will start driving price. At 1680 where we stand right now, we have touched but not entered the bullish channel. Typically this would be a good place to short. But we all hope that it breaks in to the bullish triangle. Todays movement seems to be driven channels more so then news. we experienced a break out of a bearish triangle. a little bit of QE would be great right about here.
gold at 1665 So we said it would be good to short at 1680. I have not been keeping up with my journal as there does not seem to be all that much interest. A few days ago we broke out of a down trend. From here anything can happen but since we did'nt continue to move down a sell would have been placed at 1637 Right now gold is at 1665 for those who would think that I am purposely delaying my journal. If we go by live gold price we are still at a profit. Now we get on the side lines a bit and take a break, one can enter here as a strategy but that is not the strategy I am trading right now and find that that trade may be too high risk. right now we are in neutral territory based on my system so we wait for a an entry which can possibly take a month. Its hard to give numbers as my trend lines are on angels thus price changes after time. but estimating rates of change these are the really ruff numbers we are looking at : 1550 june 1st 1800 in june 1930 after june (july aug) again these numbers are so ruff and on top of it i had to estimate price at a certain time. Only one or maybe 2 of these price points should be hit. Regardless we are not taking a position. nor are we beting on any of the above numbers. its simply a place where we relook at the charts . From there we look for our entry and place our bets