No it is not S/R really. S/R doesn't give you the path of the market. If I wanted to give SR I would have used other set of equations and obtain this: 9257 / 9231 / 9221 / 9214 / 9200 / 9179 9132/9133 then 9106 then 9090/9091/9081 (can be refined on lower scale with 9135 and 9098/9086 as strong supports). Whereas the set of equations I used for the chart above is what I called equations of POTENTIALS (like potentials of energy) which really forecast the future and not calculate past S/R. These two kind of equations belong to the same model and are related and one can comfort the other (for example 9106) but they are different and the most useful is the one that do forecast that is to say potentials. Traditional TA can't make the distinction between the two because the concept of potential doesn't exist since they don't predict they just extrapolate past SRs which is kind of trivial curve fitting. The principle of Potentials is kind of principal of economy I talked in the fibonacci thread, it is a causal/effect law: where will the market go to maximise its profit not of the majority but of the so-called initiates found in Dow Theory. The S/R is the effect not the cause as well as the psychology of crowd: it is not the psychology of crowd that drives the market it is the market that drives the crowd. Confounding the cause and the effect is a frequent error from people but it is not astonishing in complex system because of reentrance: effects is somehow reinjected in the system so that it also participate into the cause but the "cause" engine structure is not modified: the structure is invariant.
For example the most evident big support for yesterday was 9091 (if it had broken you had 9036 as another evident support). Statistically it wasn't impossible since the normal probability zone was under at 9087. But the Dow never touched it since it stopped at 9104 instead: how can you guess that it won't stop at 9091 or even 9036 rather ? Because it encounted the crossing of the blue and green line on the model chart. The crossing of the two lines belongs to the central concept of the model general rules : "There is only one single and simple law: a minimum or a maximum on projection line (interpreted as target line in green color) and their dual on base line (interpreted as consolidation line in blue color) are important <FONT COLOR=GREEN>turning points</FONT> for the market for that scale and under. By rule extension <FONT COLOR=GREEN>points around the crossing of the two lines are also important</FONT>." Whereas with pure SR it more ressembles guessing process.
I will profit from this example to give you the intuition of what efficiency really means in truth. The market stopped at the crossing "because" (I put in quote because the psychological effect as I said is not a cause but an effect so take it rather like a metaphor which you are accustomed with) it is the extreme limit of change of psychology from bullish to bearish, it is there that the UNCERTAINTY IS MAXIMUM. So efficiency has nothing to do with random walk per se, it has to do with maximisation of uncertainty which is contrary to the benefits of the majority but the benefits of the market (the so-called "initiates"). I mean the market doesn't really follow random walk but it is efficient globally from the point of view of stochastic framework which is the poorest framework since it ignores knowledge from inside the system. And believing that the crowd is capable of such knowledge is unrealistic and not a single scientific simulation of agents in stock market had been able to show that the agents although intelligent individually are capable of real intelligence globally. What they are capable of is imitation and by their mass effect there will be crash of market but the seed of the crash they are not responsible for. And efficiency or psychology of crowd is not a cause by itself it is an instrument or even artefacts (sort of collateral effects if you want) because the very cause is economical as I said and that is rational: exploiting the irrationality of others for profit is rational and it is neither new nor exclusive to stock market: the so called charlatans exit in every field . What is exclusive to stock market is the very scientific method they use so that even economists cannot suspect or prove it. I know only one nobel economist Maurice Allais that declared that the market can be technically manipulated by the market makers (not all of course and it can even be an other entity or several ones) thanks to real-time because real-time is necessary to control the flow of the mass. With fixing only they could not do that (except for small stocks of course) - In fact he has proposed a law to eliminate real time for fixing of course he will never get that he is dreaming . As for myself if in the past suppressing real time could be a solution for lowering speculation it is only an instrument and today this instrument can always be replaced by something else - I have ideas about that.
9036 done today not astonishingly close just 2 points above : maximum uncertainty principle here too .
Have also made this chart two days ago with my waves following the rules I have given already p.2 "There is only one single and simple law: a minimum or a maximum on projection line (interpreted as target line in green color) and their dual on base line (interpreted as consolidation line in blue color) are important turning points for the market for that scale and under. By rule extension points around the crossing of the two lines are also important." It seems that I have 5 waves down (1 2 3 4 5 in orange) and 3 corrective waves (A B C in blue) like elliott waves (but I have much much fewer rules than them ). Some Elliottists would perhaps say they don't agree that W4 overlaps W1 but I consider that on daily scale standard noise is about ten points so that it is acceptable since it is less than 10 points here. If not let's say that my waves are not exactly elliott waves since it is based on an econometric model and not subjective pattern recognition. <IMG SRC=http://harrytrader.membres.jexiste.org/top_retracement.gif> (comment about the chart I sent: If you consult the chart everyday, you should have seen that I have put a chart yesterday in the last window with the title "Daily scale : potential lower high at 9261". If not you can consult it here (I will let the chart in the box above for a few days): http://harrytrader.membres.jexiste.org/top_retracement.gif As you can see we came virtally from 9385 (since the real high was below in fact) and we retraced up to very near the point just before at 9261: this normally the maximum retracement if the downtrend should resume. So Bulls should stand aside and bears should get excited to short the market.)
I don't like java applet in general because it's too heavy in memory. I use prophet only because it's more practical to make screen copy on a dedicated machine. For trading I've been using for 2 years tenfore (about 250$/month) but I have then decided that I don't need any more all those monstrous indicators because I only use prices with my model so I just need quotes from the broker plus a simple chart of spot (I don't use future directly it is too noisy). Sticking to the screen has a dreadful effect on the cardiac rythm and by eliminating the watch of screen you are more serene to take decision. Now if you use indicators for scalping you have no choice than watching the screen hee hee. But it is not my case.
Yes, the only thing that matters for me is the little green light telling me that the connection is active, i.e., quotes are being transmitted. Everything else gets minimized and once in a while a dialog box appears and says there's an order. Then out comes Maxim or Card Player magazine. Where can we learn more about your model? A link would be appreciated.
harrytrader,i'm waiting for the conspiracy plot to unfold. seriously, i can't decipher a word u said.