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Discussion in 'Trading' started by S2007S, May 2, 2007.

  1. S2007S

    S2007S

    "The SPX is +95% low to high off the 769 2/10/02 bear market low, and it is already the longest time period between market tops in over 50 years."



    The Key Market Time Factor
    By Kevin Haggerty
    TradingMarkets.com
    May 2, 2007 9:15 AM ET





    In the previous commentary (4/30/07), it was noted that the first 4 days of May had a positive seasonal bias, but there is also some time symmetry for the first 6 days of May, and there obviously has been no pullback since the 1364 3/14/07 low. It is also the beginning of the weak May-October period. The SPX closed Friday at 1494.07, and declined to 1482.29 on Monday. There was a continuation early decline yesterday to 1476.70, and then the afternoon rally was timed nicely in front of the Democratic "show" and the President's veto speech. Ever since the period approaching the mid-term elections, this seems to be a regular occurrence.

    NYSE volume was 1.78 billion shares, the most since 4/20/07, with the volume ratio 55 and breadth +337. The internals turned positive after the 1:25 PM reversal, and the SPX finished +0.3% and the $INDU +0.6% to 13136. Daytraders caught either or both of the SPX Trap Door reversal after the 1476.70 low, and 1:25 PM 1-2-3 higher bottom, with entry above 1479.06, which ran to 1487.27 before closing at 1486.30. The best opportunities were the 1st hour Trap Door reversals and Volatility Band levels in energy stocks like OIH, SLB and RIG, to name a few. The OIH had pulled back from a 161.50 high on Monday to a 154.25 low yesterday, so that set up the Trap Door reversals. There is no edge for position traders right here, because of the extended spike rally from SPX 1364. But daytraders do have the edge, because it is a very nervous and news-responsive market that creates extended intraday volatility.

    The SPX is +95% low to high off the 769 2/10/02 bear market low, and it is already the longest time period between market tops in over 50 years. For the same time period, it is the 3rd longest time between bear market cycle lows, at 1664 calendar days as of yesterday. The longest is 1898 calendar days from 8/9/82-10/20/87, followed by 1707 calendar days from 10/22/57-6/25/62. Time is obviously not market friendly, so make sure your long-term investment house is in order.

    Have a good trading day,
    Kevin Haggerty
     
  2. empee

    empee

    its Finally different this time!

    :p