Shortie, I don't believe this journal at all. I think its entirely fabricated and he's not smart enough to make the whole charade appear believable. If you truly believe someone can make 29 out of 30 trades profitably on short term moves in currency ( one of the most random trades out there ), well why not just buy real time calls from this guy and make a fortune ? Do you not realize that if this was real, you wouldn't see someone posting about a $100 account trying to make $10 a month ? Why bother at all with your trading ideas ? Just pay this guy a fee and make your million. Are you doubting any of this yet ?
i totally believe TJ. i do kid around a lot on this site, but i am totally serious about this. you do see that many of his trades are in real time, don't you? maybe i am reading too much into what he wrote the other day but i think he hinted that bad trades/runs are possible with his method. it does look like a magic trick when he keeps bagging those winners with ~0 drawdowns, but one needs to look at longer stretches of trades under different market conditions to see where his method has its limitations (and every method does).
Yes, I believe every timing method does, due to internal as well as external effects. In relation to the later, I try to keep in mind the effects of major events on markets (Japan for instance). Since predicting tsunamis/earthquakes is not possible with deterministic methods at the current state of knowledge, and because such events can have big impacts on markets, it follows that any trading method, no matter how good it can be, is susceptible to significant influence by such events. In relation to the internal effects, one does not know the unknown unknowns.
I think I agree with you. Where and when could one read your live trades? I am also curious to know how a thread can be fabricated. Since you seem to think a thread can be fabricated, could you tell us how do you think it can be done? You should also cease and desist from making wrong accusations and retract what is not right--- re-read your two posts.
BTW shortie: how is that SPY/GLD spread going? It was indeed a genius observation. I read your thread in the evening, and wanted to short puts but the market was closed, so I missed. I wish I read your post during the day.
SPY/GLD is doing great, +1% today. My plan is to sit on it until it makes a larger move. If it goes negative then I will work on exit strategy.
Price action guys: is this what you do? " E/U now at 1.4465. You look down and see a previous break out at 1.4462. You look up at the retest of the why and see 20 pips. Then you think something like"If I risk 10 pips to make 20pips and if the probs are above break even, then buy"?" Time stamp: Tuesday June 14. Time:11:38AM.
time now 12:09. e/u now at 1.4482. What do you do now? Here is what is in my head now. If I do not take profits and it goes down, I would have a loser even after having had a winner. If I do wait, and take profits at 3 pips higher (as planned), then I would be happy only if it is a top. If it is not, and it breaks up, I would be missing on the upside. The point here is this: there are some many factors in the exit than there are in the entry. What do you do price actions guys?