Major resistances are not always respected 100% of the time. What makes them major is the number of occurrences where a wick or a real body strongly reacts from the level. I always go for a "best fit" approach. The resistance throughout 2015/2016, the pin bar from support in Aug 2018 and the majority of weekly closes over the last 6 months that were +/- 10 pips within that 1.1390; are all of the reasons I made that level a major support and found it to be a best fit. Those other smaller S&R lines are not as difficult to see as you are making out. For example, that smaller upper trend line resistance is clean, clear and has been in play now for 5 months. It obviously is not as significant as the trend line support which is also very clean, clear and has been in play for 20 months now. I am going to consider any S&R that is anywhere from major to moderate importance, but obviously give a 20 month trend line more significance than a 5 month trend line, but I will consider all of it as I subjectively analyze the trade, optimal entries, optimal exits, risks, etc.
Here is one of those lesser trend lines you were needing to squint to see, and where I am supposedly establishing a linear relationship in a random data set. There were 3 touches of the resistance trend line with the 4th touch being the false break-out. EOD highs were all within +/- 5 pips of the trend line (pretty amazing considering daily ranges of 50-100 pips and an overall range of more than 600 pips). If you need to squint to see this might I suggest a stronger prescription. I would also suggest you reconsider your random data theory.
Hey Krugman. Thanks for putting the effort in with your detailed and lovely reply. It’s great that we can all have different opinions, with that being said good luck with your analysis.
SPY / ES - (Bearish) 2 Bar Reversal https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/WvKaZTVb-SPY-ES-Bearish-2-Bar-Reversal/
Note to self: WAIT FOR THE PULLBACK After all of these years you would think I would be patient, wait for the pullback and get the better cost basis.
Woke up this morning to see if my GBPCAD buy pending order had been trigger. Nope, and I see it is already rocketing off. A good call, but just couldn't get the fill I wanted.
Alright folks. I offered 8 trade ideas this weekend. All 8 are in the green as of today. Long DXY Short AUDUSD Short NZDUSD Short EURUSD Long USDPLN Short Silver Short XLE Short SPY