Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by The Fractalist, Dec 3, 2009.
Possible crash scenario for the SPX
Follow the path of the previous fractal,from f0 to f7...
we have just finished F6
If the pattern repeats itself...F7 would indicate a large and fast decline in a couple of days
This is the problematic comment . . . IF. . . the pattern repeats itself.
The two patterns you show are not the same (fractals or self similar patterns) they are close but definitely not the same so why are you correlating them? I'm not trying to be argumentative just want to see what you think you see.
Man...this is your opinion...
..what I see is what I indicated in the chart... LOL
Fractals are not the holy grail.
They show you a way to trade the market with a controlled risk
Of course... not all of them work properly...but the swing trade was clear today
Short the ES @ 1114/1116 with 10 point stop
here's a quick update:
If memory serves, Benoit Mandelbrot, the father of fractal geometry, wrote in 2004 that he believed there were only about 30 or so people in the world at that time who had an adequately functional understanding of fractals. Are you one of them?
While I actually weakly hold the same opinion about where the S&P is going, I have to wonder what the rationale behind fractals as predictors is. What makes people want to trade is such a way that they complete the "son" pattern just because someone previously traded in a way that created the "father" pattern.
It seems like the traders creating the two different patterns would be different people/funds since the time scales and volumes needed to move the market would be different for each pattern.
So why does this second group, having seen what the first did, decide to repeat it only slower and bigger?
perhaps its because human nature is (often) predictable. they behave in similar ways in similar circumstances? the fear/greed in the 1st and 2nd examples are being felt as the 3rd/current example unfolds...? - although i see where you are coming from
did anyone see that video 'trader' of paul tudor jones? i recall him using similar strategies to base his decisions on.
either way, as the usa approaches defaulting, the probability of this scenario unfolding grows day by day.
a very interesting observation never the less. nice one fractalist.
I understand fractals completely. I agree that their self similarity is cosmetically useful, I find them extremely inconsistent. I've moved away from using anything that lacks perfect consistency.
My question was directed at your chart in wondering if you were seeing something that I wasn't and that wasn't the case. We were seeing the same thing.
My personal swing trade is long from the 30th at 1091.00 and I have a stop currently at 1112.50. I'm showing the potential of a reversal short setting up too but I can't confirm with my chart till later today or till the morning.
Great success in your short and thanks for clarifying what you are seeing in your chart. Don't mean to be a distraction.
Separate names with a comma.