On thursday I was able to watch Mr.Nassar trade live over the net. He talked about having a Bias going into the Market and that his bias was to go short AMAT. His reasoning was that AMAT was over bought(I'm not sure if he meant fundamentally or technically) and he was playing a head and shoulders pattern. Resistance was at 48 and he was planning on getting out at about 47. The futures were up and I'm thinking AMAT sure looks strong. I look at the chart and I had two thoughts, isn't the trend your friend and don't fight the tape. Well, what do I know. Ding-Ding The market opens and sure enough AMAT starts moving up. It jumps around for awhile and then starts to back off after about ten minutes. Mr. Nassar starts to short AMAT for a thousand shares then another thousand for a average cost of 47.79. AMAT sells down to about 47.30 then starts to bounce up. At that point David covers for a profit of 500-600. Because we only had a half hour, he stated he covered earlier then normal. Then they took questions, and of course promoted the school and Real Tick(which I already use BTW). Later, I'm still watching AMAT. Its still hanging around 47.60 but wait, its on the move. The whole market is on the move. AMAT gets to 48.03 and I'm thinking should I go for it ? Wait, don't fight the tape. Let's see if resistance holds. It holds !! AMAT is going down. Nows my chance ! Do you think I could pull the trigger... NO WAY ! But wait, AMAT reverses again after 3 minutes. It gets over 48.00 and then breaks out to 48.65. Figures, just like it goes for me when I pick my trades. I get stoped out and then later the stock trades to my target price. Just a whole lot of whipsaws. I'm still not sure if I'll go to the Market Wise school. You really can't tell if someone's methods are sound after watching for a half hour. I do have one question on my mind. If Mr.Nassar had to fire all the traders that traded for him. How is he going to train ME to be a profitable trader ? I know I don't have all the details, but the question begs to be asked. I also had a conversation with Don Bright. He basically told me that all the Retail Traders don't have a chance against the Real Professional Traders because of the tools and different rules involved. I'm not so sure that I buy that. When I see how stocks like AMD vary 300% over the last 10 years it make me realize how inefficient the market is. There is more then one way to trade and make money. I just can't beleive that all the Retail traders are losers. Seems rather closed minded to me. Scott
Looks like Mr. Nassar had a good take on AMAT that morning. Nonetheless, I am leery of "trading advisors". I have met a number of professional traders and the one whose simplest advice has proven best. He said to me : "the markets naturally go like this" and he made a wave like motion with his hand. This little aphorism came from a man who for years ran the equities trading desk at a major wall street firm. Yeah I know, who does not know this. The key of course is gaining a feel for inflection points and acting on it.
I have been giving some consideration to going the prop/pro route. I am doing okay trading retail, but I'm trying to decide if I should let my account continue to grow and increase my position size gradually, or add additional capital and increase my position size more rapidly. This is where I start considering the prop firm. If I borrow capital, I will pay around 8% interest all the time. If I use additional margin, I will only pay for it when I need it. This is the one real advantage to me of going "pro". Right now I have 4x margin during the day, and about 3x at night. With a prop firm it appears I could get 6x without too much trouble (I trade pairs mostly). I'm not convinced that there are any other real advantages for a remote trader, but I could easily be wrong. The downside is much higher exchange fees and desk fees etc., the hassle of the series 7 etc. And - and this is the big one for me - I am not sure how safe my capital investment is, and how difficult it will be to get it back when I leave the firm. I really like 100% payout, insured account, and being able to withdraw all of my funds at a moments notice. Anyway, good luck with your decision.
He can't teach proprietary traders trading his own money how to be profitable, but he runs a trading school? (from the chat transcript) The "125%" rebate gimmick that TN runs is only possible because they own Realtick and they charge an exorbitant flat fee commission that kills you when trading 100 share lots - as you will when you are new. "125% rebate" sounds too good to be true, doesn't it? Save your money, get IB or other cents/share broker, trade small with strict discipline, and you will learn more than if you give your money to some guru.
Just want to tell how I learned... I read all the books I could find (Elder, Tharp, Wizards, and Farley were all I really needed). I went to the great websites (here, HRE, DTS). Got an indea of what was going on. Then, for about a month, I picked 2-3 stocks and watched them, second by second. You really begin to get a feel for what is happening. Dove right in. I have always been retail because I like working alone. Many need the structure of an office. Good for you. Many need hand holding. That is fine too. Just remember...everyone in the market has an edge, and everyone that sells you things to get into the market has an edge also. You have to think about what type of personality you are, and then go to that type of learning environment that will foster the greatest output. In all my years of schooling (grad degree included), I always hated being told what to do. I always was more productive by myself than in a group...so I enjoy trading at home. Perhaps that won't work for you. I can tell you exactly how I trade, but most will say it is too simple or that it is foolish, or it won't work for them...and they are all correct...... for them. I know it sounded idiotic when I started too, but trading is so much about your personality that you really need to know what you are about to get a handle on your trading. Or you could just fall back on a solid rule... Everything is a scam just ruminating...
FloridaTrader, Don Bright is a nice guy. I enjoy reading his work in <I>Technical Analysis Of Stocks & Commodities</I> magazine. But on this point he is just dead wrong. His bias is in plain view for everyone to see, whether or not he is aware of it. I have read many of his posts here on Elite Trader, and the promotion of his business is really becoming quite tiring. Regarding AMAT, examine what happened to the stock on Wednesday. There was a range expansion. Back in the golden age of day trading this would have told one that the following day might be good for shorting. Not in the current market, however. An actual day trader would know better. Because he/she is placing trades every day, the trader would be in sync with the market and know that there has been choppy performance after the open lately. The trader would also have examined what AMAT typically has been doing at the market open--a place where no beginner belongs. From what you described David said to short AMAT at the open. Hence the difference between a trader and an educator. You were right to examine the Futures and the chart. Those take precedence over play standardization. Depending on your experience level, you may or may not want to seek training. If you are just getting started, having not mastered the basics and the mechanics, then training certainly can help. Beyond that there is no school that can take you from being a beginning trader to an accomplished, regularly profitable trader. To reach this level requires a lot of work and most likely going through a period of losing money where you make every mistake, as in any new job. Little by little you learn what not to do IF you have enough money and discipline to make it through the startup phase. Complicating matters even further is the fact that a high percentage of day traders have failed during the past year or two. The odds are even less in your favor now. In the end remember this: if it was easy to trade, then a lot of people would do it as happened a couple years ago. These days it is easier to manage personal risk by supplementing teaching with trading.
I really enjoyed the opportunity to see and hear from David. I learned a very important (for me) lesson from him---that will improve my trading. Wish I could monitor each of his "trading lessons".
Scott, I am not sure about Mr. Nassar's ability, nor do I know him personally, but I would always be wary of situations like this when someone picks out _ONE_ stock to trade to show their "skills." Think about it. If I knew before hand that I wanted to display what a guru I was and wanted to impress you with what a great trader I was so that you can pay me lots of money to train you, sell you my video courses, my books, etc., _I_WOULD_MAKE_A_BUSINESS_INVESTMENT_BY_BUYING_AN_AT_THE_MONEY_OR_IN_THE_MONEY_CALL_ON_AMAT_ (or perhaps a straddle) Now, I can short the stock and if I am right, I will loose money on the call, make money on the trade, and I will impress you and make money when you buy my stuff. If I am wrong, I will likely do not worse than break even or loose a little. If I do this enough times, I will probably be right half the time that I do this "demonstration" and get some recruits. IMHO, a better (more convincing) way for someone to display their skill is to say, pick any stock in the SP100 and I will trade it, or pick any stock in the Nasdaq 30 and I will trade it. If what you learned was "AMAT responds to head and shoulder formations in the early morning," that is somewhat useful, but only if you understand how to trade already. I am not suggesting that you do not learn from Mr. Nassar, he may be a genuinely good trader, only that you keep your wits about you. One final note, you sound terrified of pulling the trigger and being wrong. I don't blame you - this can happen easily - and even if Mr. Nassar only gives you your confidence to trade again, that would have been worth it. If you start making money, just keep one thing in mind: Is it what you learned with Mr Nassar that is making you money, or is it your new confidence and exitement, two key ingredients of winners, that is making you money? Perhaps the capacity to make money was inside you all along.... nitro
I am sorry to hear that you feel my statements show some bias. It is hard to share with people what reality is, based on facts from our business, without showing some bias. If I thought differently, I would be in a different end of the business. If plan A (prop trading) works better than plan B (retail trading), then I of course choose plan A. We could be in the retail business, like our friends at Timber Hill (IB), but we chose to build a business based on the success of traders, not the gigantic market of retail types. We, as a firm, would probably have made millions more if we chose to drag in every "wannabee" trader without a license or trading experience.....and I don't think it is so wrong to be compassionate about what I feel is right....our record pretty much proves it, and to be honest.....we are extremely happy that there are retail traders, chart people, advisors, analysts, brokers, and all the rest that donate money to our loved game of trading. Please don't misunderstand passion and honesty for bias (hey, it gets a bit "tiring" at my end too)...... Have a good trading day...... And, gee...now you have me posting on Nassar's thread!!!
Eldredge, There are many reasons to go pro, some may apply to you, and some may not. However, if _BUYING_ power is an issue, then, IMHO, you will not be able to make a "good" living from the markets. One thing I have always found interesting in these debates of retail vs pro is: Why not get your series 7? That is "all" (the hard part) that is required. Now you have a _CHOICE_. It is a time investement, but geez, certainly, this is a small sacrifice to make if this is to be your profession? (BTW, I should talk, I am still retail, but not because I want to be ...) nitro