With reliable indicators, trading with A's disease can be advantageous. Because the short term memory goes first, you won't be plagued with regrets when the system occasionally gives you a bad signal and you suffer a loss. Just proceed with the next signal. It is only a matter of having a system with more good signals than bad signals. The only improvement I can think of is a blue light to remind the trader to take profits.
Well, not really. This is a allegory. It is a narrative, a metaphor if you will. An interesting way to teach an important lesson or emphasize a critical point. It has a secondary meaning just a few layers under the surface.
Thank you, Nkhoi. It is gratifying to see that ET still cannot differentiate frivolity from seriousity. Stevie, you are missing the whole point. How will an Alzie react every time he snaps into lucidity and realizes that he's not trading any more, when he clearly remembers that activity from pre-onset? Far better that I and his caregivers should preserve that continuity. What Joe and I are developing is a semi-automated system, with the side benefit of entertainment value. If Alzie responds to the blatant visual, audible and textual trade signals, so much the better. If not, the system will take the signals anyway after a decent interval, and Alzie will be happy thinking he took them himself. Either way, the caregivers and I get to manage his account, siphon off fees and profits, and every 15 minutes Momma and I get to sneak away from Daddy to fool around. I am thinking of franchising.
225, I am out of the market going into the close, so I can afford a gracious pro bono reply. There are innumerable (that is to say, I don't know how many) benefits to this evolving system. First, to a generation of traders raised on the frenetic pace of SCT, it will come as a welcome relaxation to be required to make at most 24 decisions per day (no decision is permitted the first 15 minutes, and one must exit at the close). In actual practice, perhaps 8 to ten are required. Second, you CANNOT get deep into losses in the first 15 minutes of whipsaws, because you CAN'T trade then. Third, once the system starts trading, it does not stop until the close. In the interim it only reverses. So there are only two decisions: reverse, or not (which is basically no decision). Fourth, the level of attention required is minimal, as alerts can easily be programmed near potential reversal decisions.
Indeed it does, and if traded via mobile PC, it allows you to hit a different bar every fifteen minutes throughout the day. Today's profit, stopping at 12:45 PT as I did today, was 10.75 NQ points, or 78% of the daily range. Not Hershean, but then, who in fact is?
The asstoot developer of simple trend following systems will cavil that I have had a run of luck these two days, and he would, of course, be right. But my point is that if you expect the average ETer's to be able to trade a system, it had better be shit-simple, because they are. I still await with great anticipation the green-light-long-red-light-short version of SCT.
We now have a provisional name for this phenomenally (if wholly adventitiously) successful system: RST (Ridiculously Simple Trading). The ridiculous part I am sure you get. But the simple? You will note the near complete absence of anything that looks like technical analysis, which we already know never works for ET. For example, RST does not use volume. Why not? For the same reason that I don't care what color pussy is inside. Price gets me where I want to go, and I don't care whether the volume is at the limit of liquidity or in cardiac arrest. Volume is just one more thing to confuse me. The mere act of charting it suggests that it has some significance, and believe me, Joe has tested it eight ways from Sunday, and it doesn't. For another, RST does not make the logical error of seeking some variable which leads price. Price leads itself, and with zero lag. If you find something that reliably leads the price of some trading instrument, trade the leader instead. Price is not a hog with a ring in its nose. Further, RST does not refer to other time frames. RST was designed to overcome a specific set of mental and perceptual deficits. It is for traders whose attention span is about fifteen minutes, whose decision making is glacial, and complementarily, whose anxiety level is minimized by that pace of trading. RST does not care what yesterday's chart looked like. Or what is going on at the one minute level, much less at the tick rate. It is a here and now system. It makes an initial entry decision in the morning, periodically makes a few reversal decisions, otherwise makes no decisions, and closes in the afternoon. RST makes no tests of statistical behavior. No price move is too big, or too small. Too fast or too slow. All it wants is directionality. RST does not use estimators (filters) of any kind. All filters lag, and no filter can handle the instantaneous feminine changes of mind which price routinely exhibits. RST does not guess. Will price close the gap? Will it bounce off the open? Will yesterday's high be resistance? Yesterday's low support? Will price reverse on a double top? On an H&S? It doesn't give a shit. Like Candide, RST is continually amazed by events. In brief, RST is the very antithesis of an excessively complicated system like SCT, or like the absurd attached six-time-frame thirteen-state-estimator eight-statistical-test volume-assisted system thirteen-S/R leading-indicator system.
I forgot to mention that RST does not ask you to draw any lines on the chart. Do you think price pays any attention to the imagined significance of any annotations you might make?
Soooo.. this system is short when price is falling and long when it is rising? If indeed that is the case it seems a little oversimplified.