This is a great instrument if you know how to trade it. The volatility in this market can be fantastic!
Those are bad traders who "think". We should not think, we should see and know when there is a certain probability of a certain action of the market and act accordingly. When there's none, the market seems random to us but may at the same time look like a proven pattern to other traders. It's all the matter of information we possess about market conditions and actions.
For all I know, the market action which leads to my setup and the timing of the setup actually triggering could be random, but I know with as much certainty as one can know something about the market that what follows the triggering of the setup is not random. My actual hypothesis is that the setup actually works down at lower timeframes as well, which would mean they also are not random, but isn't actionable on them, at least not in any way that I want to pursue.
Yes, the results are better than random, but my experience has been that I can't possibly predict the timing of the setup nor it's being triggered, though. Not that doing so would matter, because even if I could predict it, I would still have to observe a specific sequence of events to take action, because it's more important to react than predict.
Right, we cannot predict what the market exactly will do, but we can know odds of it doing something in the case our setup occurs. And that is the reason we take those setups: because when we see them, we know odds are not random, but are shifted in our favor.
More than 90% of janitors do not fail, they do their job OK and are paid regular salary. But is that decent career?
Mcjobs get paid more than those 90% of small traders lose. Even a homeless man begging for money gets paid more than those 90% of losers. <iframe width="425" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/DHr_d-3jMeQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>