+1. The fatal mistakes of hubris tend to show up as logic errors of exposure or neglect that amplify mortality risk. Rocket scientists don't always think things through, especially when possessed by delusions of grandeur. Paul Tudor Jones: "Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego."
Horse apples, plenty of people with critical thinking skills can *rationalize anything away and make retarded decisions if not emotionally grounded. *They are blithely unaware of their"some sort of fallacy in their numerical analysis or in their critical thinking" until it's too late.
Quite frankly you seem to gloss over it's the condition of "hubris" first that causes the latter, not the other way around. In essence you are conflating the problem and mistakenly assigning it as a "logical error".
Someone who rationalizes anything away is not using his critical thinking skills, that's by definition. Critical thinking assumes impartial reasoning based on facts, a consilio. Also, I do not see how being "emotionally grounded" prevents anyone from making mistakes in numerical analysis or information processing. If you are acting based on bad information or the initial assumption is simply wrong, it does not matter if you are emotionally as solid as a rock, you still going to lose money. If you are acting based on solid modeling, your thought process included risk assessment and the process excludes any sort of discretionary stupidity, you will do all right regardless of your emotional state.
1) Well excuse me for putting you in checkmate without explaining all the steps to you. 2) You have reading comprehension problems. I already stated critical thinking skills have their place.
That assumption is a pretty big IF,... Tell you what I'll let you go on with your hallucinations on the subject, it's a subtle point that you probably have internalized anyway.
dark horse Thank you for posting this thread. I hope it stays active for a long time so many can read the gold here.
What exactly am I hallucinating about? In the few placed I've traded at, I have seen people with problems going beyond simply not being "emotionally grounded", people with real psychiatric illnesses (bipolar disorders, clinical depressions, even schizophrenia) who still managed to have very impressive trading careers. Let me distill it for you: To succeed in this business, you only need critical thinking and numerical skills. There is no specific emotional or psychological training needed to be a profitable trader or investor. PS. I have also worked with a blind lady. Despite the fact that she could not see the charts, I am sure she could still trade circles around jack hershey.