Trading what you see versus what you think

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mav, Feb 13, 2002.

  1. mav


    On 2/11/02 I posted several charts on my play for the semi's. I said I would get back to elitetrader to show not only the results of the play, but much more importantly the management of the trade once in it in terms of conviction and discipline. This lesson is the most important of all lessons. The best way I know how to teach anything is to teach by doing...therefore, attached are avi files that I narrated while in the actual trades during live trading. The play on the semi's was based on an analysis I posted on the "market dynamics and price action" thread as well as "stock picking sites" thread. I hope you find value in the content both before I made the trade and the actual implementation of the trade. I will say in closing before I post these attachments, my analysis from a longer term perspective is still yet to be determined if it is right or wrong, but in the shorter term (which is the way I trade) the analysis set up a situation to profit by trading what I saw, not what I thought I knew. That said, even though the H/S Top did not form which I anticipated, the trades were successful for both a swing trade and intraday scalps since I kept discipline and conviction close at hand. Trade Wise.

    The attachments include:

    1. 2/12/02 trading via avi files which are zipped together and can be downloaded for audio narration.

    2. The 2/13/02 (today) trades made after AMAT's earnings. These trades were scalps due to a break of the H/S Top formation. Scalping was a lower risk scenario given the trend following set up of the H/S failed.

  2. I sent the last post from another office computer so the user name defaaulted to the last user..."Mav" which is another office user, but the post is is from me. I hope this works, it may take time to download. If it does not work, send me an e-mail and we will send you a copy in the mail. :)
  3. dave-
    I just want to see if I read that order book right...i couldn't find the avi files...

    you went short 4000 then covered...looked like a $200 gain
    then short 2000 and covered for about $100gain
    then another 2000 for about $140 gain

    is that about right?
  4. is two attachments of the order book. these are all my trades for the day. I could not capture them all on one capture due to limitations with snag IT. Look at part and two. They overlap so you can follow easily with the time stamp and color. Hope this helps. It was a $687.00 day (modest). Warmest Regards
  5. here's part one
  6. Dave-
    ok...I guess I was just trying to figure out the actuall p/l on the order book you were showing
    and also trying to figure out what was making you enter and exit the trades
    i posted my order book and a few people just e-mailed me that it didn't help, that they wanted reasons for entry/ what i started doing was posting the chart instead...and just drawing or circling my entry/exit and the reasons for them
    for me personally it just seemed that going short AMAT while it was up for the day and the mkt was up for the day was a bit risky...especially scalping it while it was over the 20period MA
    but that's just my style , everyone has their own...and who can complain about a $600 day
    Nice going:D
  7. tntneo

    tntneo Moderator

    remember to be careful with .doc file when downloading. they can have macro viruses.
    (I don't say these links have at all. just a reminder, if you don't have a virus detector you should not try to read these links)

  8. No...your right. I was totally on the wrong side of this market today...I admit it. I could have had my ass handed to me, but today was all about discipline. I shorted all the rally's because the formation I posted earlier on the H/S top of the semi's led me to believe the market was heavy (conviction...but to a point), but I have Attention Deficit Disorder (lol...not really) in that I will flip myself over in a hurry if the technicals fail me...and they did. I saw the price resistance and moving average resistance get taken out today like a cheap date, and it was hard to trust...this is why I got short. For a lot of traders they would have been murdered today being short because most are too stubborn to recognize when they are wrong. I don't live with losses very long, and after 17 years of trading I'll tell you I didn't learn the lesson fast, but I have learned it. Today, each time my shorts firmed up, I blew out immediately with a small profit, but they could have just as well been a scratch or small loss...the point is, I wasn't willing to tolerate any heat and that philosophy has saved me more money than I can say. On those days when I nail the trend, I make really good money, when I'm off it like today...I drop the trade like a simonized safe. That is the only reason I made money today. I am glad to show the losers as well and I will.. and you'll see I hate losses so I don't let them hang around very long. I hope this helps
  9. Babak


  10. Brother David,

    Thank you for your contributions to this forum. I was wondering if it would be possible to attach picture files rather than .doc files.

    With many thanks and with the sincerity which is only found amidst our trading fraternity,
    #10     Feb 13, 2002