Is there a reliable way to tell that the market is trading vs. a new trend starting? I've tried ADX, channels, r-squared, volume, TICK, etc., and haven't found anything that's reliable. If I wait for a breakout, it's a head fake too often and I end up buying the top. If I try to buy the bounce after resistance, it ends up reversing and continuing down. When I'm in a solid trend I'm good, but if I don't catch the right entry point and direction while the market is consolidating, it's hard to know when to jump in. On a day like today I'm getting chopped to ribbons in ES. Every time I think the new trend is starting, it reverses. Any suggestions?
Simple answer to OP question: No; thats why its called trading, not stealing. Complex answer: I find that, with study of price, and maybe a moving average of two as visual assistance I can detect probable trend initiating vs non trend initiating behaviour in A market. Probable is the most important word; A is the second most important word. Focus on one or a very few markets will increase the probability. This is trading not taking so you must then devise a trade management strategy that turns a probability into an expected return per trade. Entry is like spearing a shark ... only the beginning.
Watch price action for a very long time, you'll start to be able to tell the difference. I don't think there is any real substitute for experience here.
the establishment of a solid trend is very frequently preceded by a lot of activity in the market: traders much increased participation coupled with erratic price movements off the open could be tail tale signs the market may trend all day long.
Do some search on " predicting " or a " forecasting " it's all there. For right now, you need to look at several time frames, higher then the one you trade , to see where the trend is heading and stay with it.