Trading vs. Trending

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by bluedemon77, Sep 28, 2007.

  1. bluedemon77

    bluedemon77 Guest

    Is there a reliable way to tell that the market is trading vs. a new trend starting? I've tried ADX, channels, r-squared, volume, TICK, etc., and haven't found anything that's reliable. If I wait for a breakout, it's a head fake too often and I end up buying the top. If I try to buy the bounce after resistance, it ends up reversing and continuing down. When I'm in a solid trend I'm good, but if I don't catch the right entry point and direction while the market is consolidating, it's hard to know when to jump in. On a day like today I'm getting chopped to ribbons in ES. Every time I think the new trend is starting, it reverses. Any suggestions?
     
  2. Rocko1

    Rocko1

    Get some books on math of finance and statistics, and it'll all become very clear to you.
     
  3. I think the OP was looking for a non-cryptic answer.
     
  4. Simple answer to OP question: No; thats why its called trading, not stealing.

    Complex answer:

    I find that, with study of price, and maybe a moving average of two as visual assistance I can detect probable trend initiating vs non trend initiating behaviour in A market. Probable is the most important word; A is the second most important word.

    Focus on one or a very few markets will increase the probability.

    This is trading not taking so you must then devise a trade management strategy that turns a probability into an expected return per trade. Entry is like spearing a shark ... only the beginning.
     
  5. bluedemon77

    bluedemon77 Guest

    That's pretty much what I thought. Thanks for your response.
     
  6. Watch price action for a very long time, you'll start to be able to tell the difference. I don't think there is any real substitute for experience here.
     
  7. the establishment of a solid trend is very frequently preceded by a lot of activity in the market: traders much increased participation coupled with erratic price movements off the open could be tail tale signs the market may trend all day long.
     
  8. Do some search on " predicting " or a " forecasting " it's all there.
    For right now, you need to look at several time frames, higher then the one you trade , to see where the trend is heading and stay with it.